Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios

• Published in: Global environmental change Vol. 33; pp. 142 - 153
• Main Authors: Gernaat, David E.H.J., Calvin, Katherine, Lucas, Paul L., Luderer, Gunnar, Otto, Sander A.C., Rao, Shilpa, Strefler, Jessica, van Vuuren, Detlef P.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.07.2015
• Subjects: Assessments; Carbon dioxide; Climate; Climate policy strategies; Deep mitigation scenarios; Emission analysis; Emissions control; Fluorinated gasses (F-gas); Methane (CH4); Nitrous oxide (N2O); Nitrous oxides; Non-CO2 emissions; Radiative forcing; Japan, Honshu, Kyoto Prefect., Kyoto; Fluorinated gasses (F-gas); Nitrous oxide (N2O); Deep mitigation scenarios; Climate policy strategies; Non-CO2 emissions; Methane (CH4)
• ISSN: 0959-3780; 1872-9495
• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.010

•Non-CO2 emissions could be a major share of total greenhouse gases by 2100.•Strong agreements on non-CO2 emission reductions in energy supply sector.•Also considerable differences in non-CO2 emission reductions in land use sectors.•Assumptions non-CO2 emission reductions critically important for low temperature targets. In 2010, the combined emissions of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the fluorinated gasses (F-gas) accounted for 20–30% of Kyoto emissions and about 30% of radiative forcing. Current scenario studies conclude that in order to reach deep climate targets (radiative forcing of 2.8W/m2) in 2100, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will need to be reduced to zero or negative. However, studies indicated that non-CO2 emissions seem to be have less mitigation potential. To support effective climate policy strategies, an in-depth assessment was made of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission and their sources in achieving an ambitious climate target. Emission scenarios were assessed that had been produced by six integrated assessments models, which contributed to the scenario database for the fifth IPCC report. All model scenarios reduced emissions from energy-related sectors, largely resulting from structural changes and end-of-pipe abatement technologies. However, emission reductions were much less in the agricultural sectors. Furthermore, there were considerable differences in abatement potential between the model scenarios, and most notably in the agricultural sectors. The paper shows that better exploration of long-term abatement potential of non-CO2 emissions is critical for the feasibility of deep climate targets.