Soil organic carbon models need independent time-series validation for reliable prediction

Abstract Numerical models are crucial to understand and/or predict past and future soil organic carbon dynamics. For those models aiming at prediction, validation is a critical step to gain confidence in projections. With a comprehensive review of ~250 models, we assess how models are validated depe...

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Published inCommunications earth & environment Vol. 4; no. 1; pp. 158 - 8
Main Authors Le Noë, Julia, Manzoni, Stefano, Abramoff, Rose, Bölscher, Tobias, Bruni, Elisa, Cardinael, Rémi, Ciais, Philippe, Chenu, Claire, Clivot, Hugues, Derrien, Delphine, Ferchaud, Fabien, Garnier, Patricia, Goll, Daniel, Lashermes, Gwenaëlle, Martin, Manuel, Rasse, Daniel, Rees, Frédéric, Sainte-Marie, Julien, Salmon, Elodie, Schiedung, Marcus, Schimel, Josh, Wieder, William, Abiven, Samuel, Barré, Pierre, Cécillon, Lauric, Guenet, Bertrand
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Nature Publishing Group 08.05.2023
Springer Nature
Nature Portfolio
Subjects
Carbon
Environmental Sciences
Information flow
Mathematical models
Numerical models
Numerical prediction
Organic carbon
Organic soils
Prediction models
Reliability
Soil dynamics
Soils
Time series
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Summary:Abstract Numerical models are crucial to understand and/or predict past and future soil organic carbon dynamics. For those models aiming at prediction, validation is a critical step to gain confidence in projections. With a comprehensive review of ~250 models, we assess how models are validated depending on their objectives and features, discuss how validation of predictive models can be improved. We find a critical lack of independent validation using observed time series. Conducting such validations should be a priority to improve the model reliability. Approximately 60% of the models we analysed are not designed for predictions, but rather for conceptual understanding of soil processes. These models provide important insights by identifying key processes and alternative formalisms that can be relevant for predictive models. We argue that combining independent validation based on observed time series and improved information flow between predictive and conceptual models will increase reliability in predictions.
ISSN:2662-4435
2662-4435
DOI:10.1038/s43247-023-00830-5