Population and age structure in Hungary: a residential preference and age dependency approach to disaggregate census data

• Published in: Journal of maps Vol. 12; no. sup1; pp. 560 - 569
• Main Authors: Li, Sen, Juhász-Horváth, Linda, Harrison, Paula A., Pintér, László, Rounsevell, Mark D. A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Abingdon Taylor & Francis 04.11.2016; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Age; Age composition; Age structure; Census; dasymetric mapping; Demographic projections; Land cover; population dependency; Population distribution; Residential development; residential preference; Spatial data; Spatial distribution
• ISSN: 1744-5647; 1744-5647
• DOI: 10.1080/17445647.2016.1237898

We present a simple model to disaggregate age structured population census data to a 1-km grid for Hungary. A dasymetric approach was used to predict the spatial distribution of population in different age groups by distinguishing residential preferences (in relation to accessible social, economic and green amenities) for working age groups (15-29, 30-49 and 50-64) and population dependencies for children and the elderly (aged 0-14 and 65+). By using open-access land cover data and fine-level population census data as inputs, the model predicts the likely spatial distribution of population and age structure for Hungary in 2011. The resulting map and gridded data provide information to support spatial planning of residential development and urban infrastructure. The model is less data-demanding than most existing approaches, but provides greater power for describing population patterns. It can also be used to create scenarios of future demographic change.