Drivers of fluctuating embodied carbon emissions in international services trade

• Published in: One earth (Cambridge, Mass.) Vol. 4; no. 9; pp. 1322 - 1332
• Main Authors: Huo, Jingwen, Meng, Jing, Zhang, Zengkai, Gao, Yuning, Zheng, Heran, Coffman, D'Maris, Xue, Jinjun, Li, Yuan, Guan, Dabo
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Inc 17.09.2021
• Subjects: CO2; emissions embodied in trade; services trade; structural decomposition analysis; structural decomposition analysis; CO2; services trade; emissions embodied in trade
• ISSN: 2590-3322; 2590-3330; 2590-3322
• DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.08.011

Service industries are generally considered “green” because of their marginal direct emissions; however, they account for 65% of the world gross domestic product and over 20% of total global trade in 2019. Here, we quantify the evolution of carbon emissions embodied in services trade from 2010 to 2018 and identify the driving factors of emission change at the global and regional scales. The annual growth rate of embodied emissions exported from the Global South (2.0%) is double that of the Global North (1.0%), with a different trade structure. We further identify three trade patterns of service export in the Global South based on the bilateral trade partnership and annual growth rate. Three kinds of specific emission mitigation policies are proposed based on the characters of services trade and different trade structures between different regions. The results provide quantitative evidence currently lacking and critical to policy decision making. [Display omitted] •Emission embodied in service trade accounts for 30% of total global trade emission•Services trade in Global South has higher growth rate and emission intensity•We assess the driving factors of emission change from 2010 to 2018•We identify three main trade patterns of service exports in the Global South Services trade is becoming increasingly important for global economy, contributing 20% to the global trade in 2019. However, the related emissions have not been paid enough attention. We show that the emissions embodied in services trade have increased at an average annual growth rate of +1.34% and accounted for almost 30% of total global trade emissions from 2010 to 2018. This is mainly driven by increased trade volume and changing trade structure. Services trade in the Global South has higher growth rate and emission intensity. We further analyze the trade pattern of the Global South and divided it into three main trade patterns. Finally, we propose three kinds of specific emission mitigation policies based on the characters of services trade and different trade structures between different regions. The share of trade volume and the emissions embodied in services trade are increasing rapidly. We show that the emissions embodied in global services trade increased at an average annual growth rate of +1.34% from 2010 to 2018. Services trade in the Global South has higher growth rate and emission intensity. Three kinds of specific emission mitigation policies are proposed based on the characters of services trade and different trade structures between different regions.