Food systems: perspectives on demographics and affluence, food supply and consumption

• Published in: Environmental health perspectives Vol. 86; pp. 201 - 223
• Main Author: Molitor, G.T.T. (Public Policy Forecasting, Inc., Potomac, MD)
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. National Institutes of Health. Department of Health, Education and Welfare 01.06.1990
• Subjects: Agriculture - trends; Biotechnology - trends; CALORIC INTAKE; Calories; CALORIFIC VALUE; CONSOMMATION ALIMENTAIRE; CONSUMO DE ALIMENTOS; Crop production; Crops; DEMOGRAFIA; DEMOGRAPHIE; DEMOGRAPHY; DISPONIBILITE ALIMENTAIRE; Energy Intake; Exercise; Food; FOOD CONSUMPTION; Food crops; FOOD PRODUCTION; Food security; FOOD SUPPLY; Food Supply - economics; Food Systems; FOOD TECHNOLOGY; Forecasting; Humans; Life Style; Nutritional Physiological Phenomena; Plants; Population Dynamics; Population growth; PRODUCCION ALIMENTARIA; PRODUCTION ALIMENTAIRE; SUMINISTRO DE ALIMENTOS; Sweeteners; TECHNOLOGIE ALIMENTAIRE; TECNOLOGIA DE LOS ALIMENTOS; United States; VALEUR CALORIQUE; VALOR CALORICO; United States
• ISSN: 0091-6765; 1552-9924
• DOI: 10.1289/ehp.9086201

Global population may double by 2020 but the Malthusian specter of rapid population growth outracing slower increases in production will continue to be a false alarm. A vast array of agricultural technologies have the capacity to increase output 10-fold, perhaps as much as 100-fold. Discovery of a sweetener 54,000 times sweeter than sucrose (cane or beet sugar) indicates the magnitude of prodigious increases portended by new technologies. Productive agriculture, however, has become capital intense, limiting its availability in poorer nations. Increased production is the key to low prices and affordable supplies. In a world continuing to face starvation, there is no place for government policies purposely limiting supplies and artificially propping prices at high levels that place life-sustaining food beyond means of the poor. Affluence provides financial wherewithal to secure an adequate diet. Unfortunately, an estimated 25% of the world's population go hungry and face starvation. The specter of starvation may afflict as many as 600 million, and malnutrition, another 150 million by the year 2020. Improving self-sufficiency in these nations will remain a top humanitarian concern.