Analytical Representations for Characterizing the Global Aviation Radiation Environment Based on Model and Measurement Databases

• Published in: Space Weather Vol. 16; no. 10; pp. 1523 - 1538
• Main Authors: Tobiska, W. Kent, Didkovsky, Leonid, Judge, Kevin, Weiman, Seth, Bouwer, Dave, Bailey, Justin, Atwell, Bill, Maskrey, Molly, Mertens, Chris, Zheng, Yihua, Shea, Margaret, Smart, Don, Gersey, Brad, Wilkins, Richard, Bell, Duane, Gardner, Larry, Fuschino, Robert
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.10.2018
• Subjects: Aerospace safety; Air traffic management; Aircraft accidents & safety; Airports; ARMAS; Automation; Aviation; aviation radiation database; Civil aviation; Climate models; Climate variability; Climatology; Cosmic rays; Dependence; Dosage; Energetic particles; Galactic cosmic rays; Geomagnetism; Global climate; Hazards; Ionizing radiation; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical models; NAIRAS; Nowcasting; Polynomials; Radiation; Radiation belts; radiation climatology; Radiation hazards; Radiation measurement; radiation weather; Relativistic particles; Safety; Set theory; Weather forecasting; Western Hemisphere; radiation climatology; ARMAS; NAIRAS; aviation radiation database; radiation weather
• ISSN: 1542-7390; 1539-4964; 1542-7390
• DOI: 10.1029/2018SW001843

The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety climatological model and the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) statistical database are presented as polynomial fit equations. Using equations based on altitude, L shell, and geomagnetic conditions an effective dose rate for any location from a galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment can be calculated. A subset of the ARMAS database is represented by a second polynomial fit equation for the GCR plus probable relativistic energetic particle (REP; Van Allen belt REP) effective dose rates within a narrow band of L shells with altitudinal and geomagnetic dependency. Solar energetic particle events are not considered in this study since our databases do not contain these events. This work supports a suggestion that there may be a REP contribution having an effect at aviation altitudes. The ARMAS database is rich in Western Hemisphere observations for L shells between 1.5 and 5; there have been many cases of enhanced radiation events possibly related to effects from radiation belt particles. Our work identifies that the combined effects of an enhanced radiation environment in this L shell range are typically 15% higher than the GCR background. We also identify applications for the equations representing the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety and ARMAS databases. They include (i) effective dose rate climatology in comparison with measured weather variability and (ii) climatological and statistical weather nowcasting and forecasting. These databases may especially help predict the radiation environment for regional air traffic management, for airport overflight operations, and for air carrier route operations of individual aircraft. Plain Language Summary Analytical functions have been constructed that represent the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety model and Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety measurement databases of the radiation environment at commercial aviation altitudes; the functions enable global climatological and statistical weather nowcasting and forecasting of aviation radiation hazards during quiet to active geomagnetic conditions. Key Points Analytical functions have been constructed that represent the NAIRAS model and ARMAS measurement databases of the radiation environment These functions enable global climatological and statistical weather forecasting of aviation radiation hazards These functions represent the GCR radiation component and the GCR plus probable REP radiation components