Aid as a Tool against Insurgency: Evidence from Contested and Controlled Territory in Afghanistan

• Published in: The American political science review Vol. 110; no. 4; pp. 731 - 749
• Main Author: SEXTON, RENARD
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York, USA Cambridge University Press 01.11.2016
• Subjects: Afghanistan; Armed forces; Civil war; Conflict; Counterinsurgency; Districts; Economics; Government (Administrative Body); Humanitarian aid; Humanitarianism; Implementation; Infrastructure; Insurgency; Management; Militancy; National security; Occupational Mobility; Political power; Political science; Politics; Population; Population distribution; Public Opinion; Rebellions; Studies; Violence; War; Afghanistan
• ISSN: 0003-0554; 1537-5943
• DOI: 10.1017/S0003055416000356

Findings in political science, economics, and security studies suggest that during civil war aid can be used to help establish control of contested areas and reduce insurgent violence by winning the “hearts and minds” of the population. These accounts typically ignore the strategic implications of aid distribution by progovernment forces, namely that rebel groups should resist the implementation of aid projects that would undermine their position. Using a new dataset of fine-grained and geolocated violence incidents in Afghanistan and random variation in the administration of some U.S. counterinsurgency aid, I show that insurgents strategically respond to counterinsurgency aid in contested districts by resisting through violent means. The results indicate that civilian aid only reduces insurgent violence when distributed in districts already controlled by progovernment forces; when allocated to contested districts civilian aid in fact causes a significant increase in insurgent violence. The results also indicate that the effect of counterinsurgency aid on violence varies by project type, and can be overwhelmed by macrolevel strategic changes in the conflict.