Snow cover loss compounding the future economic vulnerability of western China

• Published in: The Science of the total environment Vol. 755; no. Pt 1; p. 143025
• Main Authors: Wu, Xuejiao, Wang, Xiaoming, Liu, Shiwei, Yang, Yang, Xu, Guobao, Xu, Ying, Jiang, Tong, Xiao, Cunde
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier B.V 10.02.2021
• Subjects: basins; China; Climate warming; Cryosphere; decline; economic costs; economic valuation; environment; RCPs; Remote sensing; rivers; snow; Snow cover; snowmelt; snowpack; socioeconomic development; SSPs; China; RCPs; Climate warming; Snow cover; SSPs; Cryosphere; Remote sensing
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143025

Decline in snow mass threatens the regional economy that critically depends on meltwater. However, the economic scale of snow mass loss is hardly understood, and its role in the vulnerability of future economic development is unclear. We investigate the current reserves of snow cover and the value of its loss. The result showed that the total annual snow mass in western China declines at a rate of 3.3 × 109 Pg per decade (p < 0.05), which accounts for approximately 0.46% of the mean of annual snow mass (7.2 × 1011 Pg). Snow mass loss over the past 40 years in western China turns into an average loss value of CN¥0.1 billion (in the present value) every year ($1 = CN¥7). If the trend continues at the current rate, the accumulated loss value would rise to CN¥63 billion by 2040. Furthermore, subject to the combinations of RCPs and SSPs scenario, the future economic value of snow mass loss in western China appears to accelerate driven by both declining snowmelt resources and socioeconomic development demand. RCP26-SSP1 is the pathway among all to have the least economic cost in replacing the snowmelt loss, and the cost would be quadrupled in RCP80-SSP3 scenario by 2100. At a basin scale, the declining snow mass would turn the regional economy to be more vulnerable except Junggar and Ili endorheic basin. The Ertis river and Qaidam endorheic basins display to be most vulnerable. It highlights that the snow value can be economically important in the regions of west China and should be considered more properly in water resources management. [Display omitted] •Snow cover has a unique and irreplaceable role in ecosystems, environment, and economic activities.•Novel angle to look into the impact of climate change in terms of snow cover.•There is a decreasing trend of snow mass in west China in the past 40 years.•Economic value of snow mass loss would accelerate, driven by both declining meltwater and growing demand.•Cost to meet the snowmelt resource gap would place many areas in western China more vulnerable.