Adapting cities to climate change: A systemic modelling approach

• Published in: Urban climate Vol. 10; no. 2; pp. 407 - 429
• Main Authors: Masson, V., Marchadier, C., Adolphe, L., Aguejdad, R., Avner, P., Bonhomme, M., Bretagne, G., Briottet, X., Bueno, B., de Munck, C., Doukari, O., Hallegatte, S., Hidalgo, J., Houet, T., Le Bras, J., Lemonsu, A., Long, N., Moine, M.-P., Morel, T., Nolorgues, L., Pigeon, G., Salagnac, J.-L., Viguié, V., Zibouche, K.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.12.2014; Elsevier
• Subjects: Adaptation; Cities; Climate Change; Economics and Finance; Environment and Society; Environmental Sciences; Humanities and Social Sciences; Systemic modelling; Urban Heat Island; Urban Heat Island; Systemic modelling; Cities; Climate Change; Adaptation
• ISSN: 2212-0955; 2212-0955
• DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2014.03.004

•Some urban planning strategies in relation with climate change may have unexpected results in the long term.•Urban Heat Island is crucial to accurately simulate cities energy consumption.•Systemic modelling is possible and pertinent to analyse adaptation strategies. Societies have to both reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and undertake adaptation measures to limit the negative impacts of global warming on the population, the economy and the environment. Examining how best to adapt cities is especially challenging as urban areas will evolve as the climate changes. Thus, examining adaptation strategies for cities requires a strong interdisciplinary approach involving urban planners, architects, meteorologists, building engineers, economists, and social scientists. Here we introduce a systemic modelling approach to the problem. Our four-step methodology consists of: first, defining interdisciplinary scenarios; second, simulating the long-term evolution of cities on the basis of socio-economic and land-use models; third, calculating impacts with physical models (such as TEB), and; finally, calculating the indicators that quantify the effect of different adaptation policies. In the examples presented here, urban planning strategies are shown to have unexpected influence on city expansion in the long term. Moreover, the Urban Heat Island should be taken into account in operational estimations of building energy demands. Citizens’ practices seem to be an efficient lever for reducing energy consumption in buildings. Interdisciplinary systemic modelling appears well suited to the evaluation of several adaptation strategies for a very broad range of topics.