Statistical validation of a voyage simulation model for ocean-going ships using satellite AIS data

• Published in: Journal of marine science and technology Vol. 24; no. 4; pp. 1297 - 1307
• Main Authors: Fujii, Michio, Hashimoto, Hirotada, Taniguchi, Yuuki, Kobayashi, Eiichi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Tokyo Springer Japan 01.12.2019; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Analysis; Automotive Engineering; Computer simulation; Computer-generated environments; Dynamic stability; Engineering; Engineering Design; Engineering Fluid Dynamics; Failures; Mechanical Engineering; Navigation; Ocean; Offshore Engineering; Organizations; Original Article; Probability theory; Reproducibility; Satellites; Ships; Simulation; Stability analysis; Stability criteria; Statistical analysis; Statistics; Vulnerability; Wave height; Statistical validation; Wave limit criterion; Operational limitations; Second generation intact stability criteria; Voyage simulation; Satellite AIS
• ISSN: 0948-4280; 1437-8213
• DOI: 10.1007/s00773-019-00626-3

In the second generation intact stability criteria being discussed by the International Maritime Organization, a ship can be operated even though it fails to pass the vulnerability criteria of dynamic stability failures, as far as operational limitations are imposed to guarantee the required safety level of the ship. This is a new concept that has not been implemented in previous intact stability criteria. Voyage simulation is the most effective assessment tool to facilitate the discussion of the new operational limitations, and its model needs to be developed and validated for ocean-going ships in various cases. In this study, statistical validation of a voyage simulation model is attempted by comparison against numerous actual voyages collected from satellite automatic identification system data. The validation results showed that the simulated results of navigation in the North Pacific and North Atlantic are similar to those of actual voyages. Furthermore, to improve the reproducibility of the simulation in rough seas, a wave limit criterion was derived by comparing the probability density of the actually encountered and occurred wave heights of the navigable area. Introducing the wave limit criterion improved the correlation of the encountered wave height during the voyage.