Climate change hotspots over South America: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 multi-model datasets

• Published in: Theoretical and applied climatology Vol. 117; no. 3-4; pp. 579 - 587
• Main Authors: Torres, Roger Rodrigues, Marengo, Jose Antonio
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Vienna Springer Vienna 01.08.2014; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric circulation; Atmospheric models; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate change; Climate models; Climatology; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Global temperature changes; Meteorology; Original Paper; Precipitation (Meteorology); Precipitation variability; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; South America; Brazil; Brazil, Minas Gerais; Brazil, Amazonia; Austral Summer; Representative Concentration Pathway; Regional Climate Change Index; Force Scenario; Austral Winter; Multimodel; Coupled model; Century 21st; Proxy; Spatial distribution; General circulation models; Regional scope; Climate models; digital simulation; Climate prediction; climate change
• ISSN: 0177-798X; 1434-4483
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-013-1030-x

This study identifies possible hotspots of climate change in South America through an examination of the spatial pattern of the Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) over the region by the end of the twenty-first century. The RCCI is a qualitative index that can synthesize a large number of climate model projections, and it is suitable for identifying those regions where climate change could be more pronounced in a warmer climate. The reliability and uncertainties of the results are evaluated by using numerous state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) and forcing scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5. The results show that southern Amazonia and the central-western region and western portion of Minas Gerais state in Brazil are persistent climate change hotspots through different forcing scenarios and GCM datasets. In general, as the scenarios vary from low- to high-level forcing, the area of high values of RCCI increase and the magnitude intensify from central-western and southeast Brazil to northwest South America. In general, the climatic hotspots identified in this study are characterized by an increase of mean surface air temperature, mainly in the austral winter; by an increase of interannual temperature variability, predominantly in the austral summer; and by a change in the mean and interannual variability of precipitation during the austral winter.