How does Germany's green energy policy affect electricity market volatility? An application of conditional autoregressive range models

• Published in: Energy policy Vol. 98; pp. 621 - 628
• Main Author: Auer, Benjamin R.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.11.2016; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Alternative energy; Autoregressive models; CARR modelling; Clean energy; Data processing; Dynamic models; EEG; EEX data; Electricity; Electricity consumption; Electricity markets; Electricity pricing; Emissions control; Emissions trading; Energy; Energy industry; Energy policy; Environmental policy; Europe; German energy policy; Germany; International law; Laws; Markets; Prices; Regulation; Renewable energy; Scandals; Stability; Studies; Volatility; Europe; C22; Q48; CARR modelling; Electricity markets; EEX data; German energy policy; Q41
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.08.037

Based on a dynamic model for the high/low range of electricity prices, this article analyses the effects of Germany's green energy policy on the volatility of the electricity market. Using European Energy Exchange data from 2000 to 2015, we find rather high volatility in the years 2000–2009 but also that the weekly price range has significantly declined in the period following the year 2009. This period is characterised by active regulation under the Energy Industry Law (EnWG), the EU Emissions Trading Directive (ETD) and the Renewable Energy Law (EEG). In contrast to the preceding period, price jumps are smaller and less frequent (especially for day-time hours), implying that current policy measures are effective in promoting renewable energies while simultaneously upholding electricity market stability. This is because the regulations strive towards a more and more flexible and market-oriented structure which allows better integration of renewable energies and supports an efficient alignment of renewable electricity supply with demand. •We estimate a CARR model for German electricity price data.•We augment the model by dummies capturing important regulations.•We find a significant decline in the price range after the year 2009.•This implies effective price stabilisation by German energy policy.