On path correlation and PERT bias
Most studies of project time estimation assume that (a) activity times are mutually independent random variables; many also assume that (b) path completion times are mutually independent. In this paper, we subject the impact of both these assumptions to close scrutiny. Using tools from multivariate...
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| Published in | European journal of operational research Vol. 189; no. 3; pp. 1208 - 1216 |
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| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Amsterdam
Elsevier B.V
16.09.2008
Elsevier Elsevier Sequoia S.A |
| Series | European Journal of Operational Research |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0377-2217 1872-6860 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.061 |
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| Abstract | Most studies of project time estimation assume that (a) activity times are mutually independent random variables; many also assume that (b) path completion times are mutually independent. In this paper, we subject the impact of both these assumptions to close scrutiny. Using tools from multivariate analysis, we make a theoretical study of the direction of the error in the classical PERT method of estimating mean project completion time when correlation is ignored. We also investigate the effect of activity dependence on the normality of path length via simulation. |
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| AbstractList | Most studies of project time estimation assume that (a) activity times are mutually independent random variables; many also assume that (b) path completion times are mutually independent. In this paper, we subject the impact of both these assumptions to close scrutiny. Using tools from multivariate analysis, we make a theoretical study of the direction of the error in the classical PERT method of estimating mean project completion time when correlation is ignored. We also investigate the effect of activity dependence on the normality of path length via simulation. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] Most studies of project time estimation assume that (a) activity times are mutually independent random variables; many also assume that (b) path completion times are mutually independent. In this paper, we subject the impact of both these assumptions to close scrutiny. Using tools from multivariate analysis, we make a theoretical study of the direction of the error in the classical PERT method of estimating mean project completion time when correlation is ignored. We also investigate the effect of activity dependence on the normality of path length via simulation. |
| Author | Paul, Anand Banerjee, Arunava |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Arunava surname: Banerjee fullname: Banerjee, Arunava email: arunava@cise.ufl.edu organization: Department of Computer and Information Science and Engineering, University of Florida, CSE Building, Room 301, P.O. Box 116120, Gainesville, Fl 32611, United States – sequence: 2 givenname: Anand surname: Paul fullname: Paul, Anand email: paulaa@ufl.edu organization: Department of Decision and Information Sciences, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida, 333 Stuzin Hall, P.O. Box 117169, Gainesville, Fl 32611, United States |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1214/aop/1176993610 10.1287/mnsc.17.11.717 10.1287/opre.33.4.862 10.1287/opre.12.1.16 10.1214/aoms/1177698701 10.1214/aop/1029867121 10.1287/opre.48.6.927.12398 10.1214/aop/1176996608 10.1214/aop/1176993872 |
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| References | Esary, Proschan, Walkup (bib4) 1967; 38 Gutierrez, Paul (bib5) 2000; 48 MacCrimmon, Ryavec (bib7) 1964; 12 (bib11) 1989 Dedecker, Merlevède (bib1) 2002; 30 Dodin (bib2) 1985; 33 Ringer (bib10) 1971; 17 Pitt (bib9) 1982; 10 Elmaghraby (bib3) 1977 Joag-Dev, Perlman, Pitt (bib6) 1983; 11 McLeish (bib8) 1974; 2 Gutierrez (10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.061_bib5) 2000; 48 (10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.061_bib11) 1989 McLeish (10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.061_bib8) 1974; 2 Dedecker (10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.061_bib1) 2002; 30 Elmaghraby (10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.061_bib3) 1977 MacCrimmon (10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.061_bib7) 1964; 12 Pitt (10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.061_bib9) 1982; 10 Esary (10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.061_bib4) 1967; 38 Dodin (10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.061_bib2) 1985; 33 Joag-Dev (10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.061_bib6) 1983; 11 Ringer (10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.061_bib10) 1971; 17 |
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| SubjectTerms | Correlation Correlation analysis Multivariate analysis PERT Project management Project networks Random variables Slepian’s inequality Studies |
| Title | On path correlation and PERT bias |
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