On path correlation and PERT bias

Most studies of project time estimation assume that (a) activity times are mutually independent random variables; many also assume that (b) path completion times are mutually independent. In this paper, we subject the impact of both these assumptions to close scrutiny. Using tools from multivariate...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inEuropean journal of operational research Vol. 189; no. 3; pp. 1208 - 1216
Main Authors Banerjee, Arunava, Paul, Anand
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 16.09.2008
Elsevier
Elsevier Sequoia S.A
SeriesEuropean Journal of Operational Research
Subjects
Correlation
Correlation analysis
Multivariate analysis
PERT
Project management
Project networks
Random variables
Slepian’s inequality
Studies
Project networks
Slepian’s inequality
PERT
Correlation
Project management
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN0377-2217
1872-6860
DOI10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.061

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Summary:Most studies of project time estimation assume that (a) activity times are mutually independent random variables; many also assume that (b) path completion times are mutually independent. In this paper, we subject the impact of both these assumptions to close scrutiny. Using tools from multivariate analysis, we make a theoretical study of the direction of the error in the classical PERT method of estimating mean project completion time when correlation is ignored. We also investigate the effect of activity dependence on the normality of path length via simulation.
Bibliography:SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
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ISSN:0377-2217
1872-6860
DOI:10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.061