Future Changes of Drought and Flood Events in China under a Global Warming Scenario

This study investigates the impact of global warming on drought/flood patterns in China at the end of the 21st century based on the simulations of 22 global climate models and a regional climate model （RegCM3） under the SRES （Special Report on Emissions Scenarios） A1B scenario. The standardized prec...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inAtmospheric and oceanic science letters = Daqi-he-haiyang-kexue-kuaibao Vol. 6; no. 1; pp. 8 - 13
Main Author CHEN Huo-Po SUN Jian-Qi CHEN Xiao-Li
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Beijing Routledge 2013
KeAi Publishing Communications Ltd
Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China%Environmental Development Center of Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100029, China
Subjects
Climate
Climate change
Drought
drought/ flood
Duration
Flood control
Floods
Global warming
projection
Standardized precipitation index
中国南部
全球变暖
全球气候模式
区域气候模式
干旱
持续时间
洪水事件
空间范围
China
drought/flood
standardized precipitation index
projection
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Summary:This study investigates the impact of global warming on drought/flood patterns in China at the end of the 21st century based on the simulations of 22 global climate models and a regional climate model （RegCM3） under the SRES （Special Report on Emissions Scenarios） A1B scenario. The standardized precipitation index （SPI）, which has well performance in monitoring the drought/ flood characteristics （in terms of their intensity, duration, and spatial extent） in China, is used in this study. The projected results of 22 coupled models and the RegCM3 simulation are consistent. These models project a decrease in the frequency of droughts in most parts of northern China and a slight increase in the frequency in some parts of southern China. Considering China as a whole, the spatial extents of droughts are projected to be signifi- cantly reduced. In contrast, future flood events over most parts of China are projected to occur more frequently with stronger intensity and longer duration than those prevalent currently. Additionally, the spatial extents of flood events are projected to significantly increase.
Bibliography:11-5693/P
standardized precipitation index, drought/ flood, projection
This study investigates the impact of global warming on drought/flood patterns in China at the end of the 21st century based on the simulations of 22 global climate models and a regional climate model （RegCM3） under the SRES （Special Report on Emissions Scenarios） A1B scenario. The standardized precipitation index （SPI）, which has well performance in monitoring the drought/ flood characteristics （in terms of their intensity, duration, and spatial extent） in China, is used in this study. The projected results of 22 coupled models and the RegCM3 simulation are consistent. These models project a decrease in the frequency of droughts in most parts of northern China and a slight increase in the frequency in some parts of southern China. Considering China as a whole, the spatial extents of droughts are projected to be signifi- cantly reduced. In contrast, future flood events over most parts of China are projected to occur more frequently with stronger intensity and longer duration than those prevalent currently. Additionally, the spatial extents of flood events are projected to significantly increase.
ISSN:1674-2834
2376-6123
DOI:10.1080/16742834.2013.11447051