Modelling C, N, water and heat dynamics in winter wheat under climate change in southern Sweden

• Published in: Agriculture, ecosystems & environment Vol. 86; no. 3; pp. 221 - 235
• Main Authors: Eckersten, Henrik, Blombäck, Karin, Kätterer, Thomas, Nyman, Per
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.09.2001; Elsevier Science
• Subjects: Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions; Biological and medical sciences; Crop production; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General agroecology; General agroecology. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development. Rural area planning. Landscaping; General agronomy. Plant production; Generalities. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development; Long term predictions; N leaching; Soil conditions; SOIL/SOILN model; Sweden; Scandinavia; Sweden; Europe; Sweden; Long term predictions; N leaching; SOIL/SOILN model; Crop production; Soil conditions; Monocotyledones; Carbon dioxide; Environmental factor; Sandy soil; Forecast model; Cereal crop; Carbon balance; Medium enrichment; Gramineae; Mineralization; Water regime; Angiospermae; Cultivated plant; Nutrition; Clay soil; Biogeochemical cycle; Nitrogen; Leaching; Agroecosystem; Carbon cycle; Nitrogen cycle; Nitrogen balance; Winter crops; Spermatophyta; Yield component; Inceptisols; Climate modification; Triticum aestivum
• ISSN: 0167-8809; 1873-2305
• DOI: 10.1016/S0167-8809(00)00284-X

The possible consequences of climate change on carbon and nitrogen budgets of winter wheat were examined by means of model predictions. Biomass, nitrogen, water and heat dynamics were simulated for long-term climatic conditions in central and southern Sweden for a clay soil and a sandy soil. The effects of elevated atmospheric CO 2 and changed climate as predicted for 2050 were simulated daily with two linked process orientated models for soil and plant (SOIL/SOILN). The models had previously been calibrated against several variables at the sites under present conditions, and the long-term predictions at present climate were shown to correspond reasonably well with measured soil C and N trends in long-term experiments. The climate and CO 2 conditions for the year 2050 were represented by climatic scenarios from a global climate model, and the elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration was assumed to change plant parameter values in accordance with literature data. For the year 2050, winter wheat production was predicted to increase by 10–20% (depending on soil type) compared with the present value. Plant N concentration decreased although N mineralisation increased by 18%. Drainage was predicted to increase which resulted in increased N leaching by 17%, and the decrease in soil C became larger. The predictions were found to be most sensitive to assumptions concerning changes of radiation use efficiency, stomatal conductance, air temperature and precipitation. Hence, the load of N and C to surrounding ecosystems and the atmosphere, on a ground surface basis, was predicted to increase under climate change. However, because the harvest will increase, these negative effects of climate change on a yield basis will be almost zero, except that N leaching from the sandy soil will still increase.