Modeling cloud-to-ground lightning probability in Alaskan tundra through the integration of Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and machine learning method

• Published in: Environmental research letters Vol. 15; no. 11; pp. 115009 - 115022
• Main Authors: He, Jiaying, Loboda, Tatiana V
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bristol IOP Publishing 01.11.2020
• Subjects: Alaskan tundra; Algorithms; Atmospheric models; Boreal forests; Boundary layers; Climate models; Climate system; cloud-to-ground lightning; Convection; Dew point; empirical-dynamic modeling; Environment models; Geopotential; Geopotential height; Learning algorithms; Lightning; Lightning strikes; lightning-ignited wildfire; Machine learning; Microphysics; Planetary boundary layer; random forest; Relative humidity; Taiga & tundra; Tundra; Weather forecasting; Weather Research and Forecast (WRF); Wildfires
• ISSN: 1748-9326; 1748-9326
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abbc3b

Wildland fires exert substantial impacts on tundra ecosystems of the high northern latitudes (HNL), ranging from biogeochemical impact on climate system to habitat suitability for various species. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is the primary ignition source of wildfires. It is critical to understand mechanisms and factors driving lightning strikes in this cold, treeless environment to support operational modeling and forecasting of fire activity. Existing studies on lightning strikes primarily focus on Alaskan and Canadian boreal forests where land-atmospheric interactions are different and, thus, not likely to represent tundra conditions. In this study, we designed an empirical-dynamical method integrating Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) simulation and machine learning algorithm to model the probability of lightning strikes across Alaskan tundra between 2001 and 2017. We recommended using Thompson 2-moment and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic schemes as microphysics and planetary boundary layer parameterizations for WRF simulations in the tundra. Our modeling and forecasting test results have shown a strong capability to predict CG lightning probability in Alaskan tundra, with the values of area under the receiver operator characteristics curves above 0.9. We found that parcel lifted index and vertical profiles of atmospheric variables, including geopotential height, dew point temperature, relative humidity, and velocity speed, important in predicting lightning occurrence, suggesting the key role of convection in lightning formation in the tundra. Our method can be applied to data-scarce regions and support future studies of fire potential in the HNL.