Evolution characteristics research on summer-autumn consistent drought of Poyang Lake based on the copula in the changing environment

• Published in: IOP conference series. Earth and environmental science Vol. 612; no. 1; pp. 12024 - 12032
• Main Authors: Xu, B, Yuan, Z, Sun, K K, Lin, Y R
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bristol IOP Publishing 01.12.2020
• Subjects: changing environment; Changing environments; copula function; Drought; Drought index; Evolution; Hydrology; inconsistency; Lake basins; Lakes; Mathematical analysis; Poyang lake; Precipitation; Summer; Weather stations; Poyang Lake
• ISSN: 1755-1307; 1755-1315
• DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/612/1/012024

The precipitation series is the main data to calculate the parameters and the frequency of drought, aim to the less considering with the inconsistency of precipitation series in study of drought research under the changing environment, and the less reasearch on the drought evolution characteristics within the basin before and after the hydrological alteration, the hydrological alteration diagnosis system was used to diagnose the summer and fall precipitation series of Yichun, Nanchang etc. and 9 meteorological station in total within the basin of Poyang lake. Based on the hydrological alteration results and considering the Copula function, the percentage of precipitation anomaly (Pa) was taken as the drought index to calculate the percentage of summer-fall consistent drought of meteorological stations. The results show that, the alteration of precipitation series in summer was obvious at Poyang lake, comparing with the period before the alteraion, the percentage of summer-fall consistent drought of Poyang Lake is decreasing, that means the recurrence period of summer-fall consistent drought becomes longer, the main reason that induce the much more serious drought in the Poyang Lake is the factor of water expenditure.