Nonstationarity of Real Exchange Rates in the G7 Countries: Are They Cointegrated with Real Variables?

• Published in: Journal of the Japanese and international economies Vol. 11; no. 4; pp. 523 - 547
• Main Authors: Kawai, Masahiro, Ohara, Hidetaka
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Inc 01.12.1997; Elsevier
• Series: Journal of the Japanese and International Economies
• Subjects: Developed countries; Exchange; Exchange rate policy; Exchange rates; G-7; Labour productivity; Purchasing power parity
• ISSN: 0889-1583; 1095-8681
• DOI: 10.1006/jjie.1997.0396

Using monthly data for the G7 countries in the post-Bretton Woods floating rate period, this paper demonstrates that almost all bilateral real exchange rates have unit roots and, hence, are nonstationary. Consequently, it rejects simple PPP as a long-run relationship. The paper also shows that many of these real exchange rates are cointegrated with other real economic variables such as relative labor productivity, terms-of-trade ratios, real trade balance ratios, and long-term real interest rate differentials. In particular, relative labor productivity is statistically significant with the correct sign for more than half of the country pairs for which cointegration is confirmed. This finding lends support to the Balassa–Samuelson productivity-bias hypothesis. These results imply that nonstationarity of real exchange rates and the consequent rejection of simple PPP can be consistent with the notion that real exchange rates revert to an equilibrium in the long run without deviating arbitrarily far from this equilibrium position.J. Japan. Int. Econ.,December 1997, pp. 523–547. Institute of Social Science, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113, Japan, and Faculty of Business and Commerce, Meiji University, 1-1 Kanda, Surugadai, Chiyada-ku, Tokyo 101, Japan.