Clinical and statistical issues related to predicting therapeutic outcome

• Published in: Journal of clinical psychology Vol. 39; no. 5; pp. 651 - 657
• Main Author: Ghiselli, William B.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Brandon Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company 01.09.1983; Wiley
• Subjects: Addictive behaviors; Adult; Adult and adolescent clinical studies; Alcoholism - psychology; Alcoholism - therapy; Biological and medical sciences; Female; Hospitals, Psychiatric; Humans; Male; Medical sciences; Middle Aged; MMPI; Prognosis; Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry; Psychometrics; Psychopathology. Psychiatry; Psychotherapy - methods; Therapeutic efficiency; Human; Mathematical analysis; Linear regression; Alcoholism; Prediction; Therapeutic schedule; Statistics; Semiology
• ISSN: 0021-9762; 1097-4679
• DOI: 10.1002/1097-4679(198309)39:5<651::AID-JCLP2270390503>3.0.CO;2-0

Attempted to determine whther the therapeutic outcome of an alcoholism treatment program could be predicted (N = 81). Data were analyzed both by a mathematically oriented linear regression approach and by a clinically oriented retropective parmetric approach. When the two types of analyses were applied to the same data base each analysis identitied different predictors of therapeutic outcome. This created an apprent dilemmn as to how prediction of therapeutic outcome ought to be done. It was suggested that the correlational regression appreoach be used to determine what to expect from therapy and the parametric clinical approach be used to explain why therapy succeeded or failed.