Incorporating uncertainty in the coefficients and multipliers of an IO table: A case study
Uncertainty is a topic not examined in depth in input‐ output (IO) analysis, especially from an empirical approach. We propose the use of the information obtained in the surveys conducted to create the IO technical coefficients matrix to adequately take into account the inherent uncertainty it conta...
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Published in | Papers in regional science Vol. 90; no. 4; pp. 845 - 861 |
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Main Authors | , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Oxford, UK
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
01.11.2011
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Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | Uncertainty is a topic not examined in depth in input‐ output (IO) analysis, especially from an empirical approach. We propose the use of the information obtained in the surveys conducted to create the IO technical coefficients matrix to adequately take into account the inherent uncertainty it contains. We propose a Beta distribution probability as a very suitable hypothesis and we have tested it in the Andalusian IO table. We have created probability intervals for each one of the coefficients and defined associated fuzzy coefficients, which allows us to obtain an interval IO matrix and to derive first order interval multipliers.
Resumen
La incertidumbre es un tema que no se trata en profundidad en análisis de input‐ output (IO), especialmente desde un punto de vista empírico. Proponemos el uso de la información obtenida en los muestreos realizados para crear la matriz de coeficientes técnicos de IO, para tener en cuenta de manera adecuada la incertidumbre inherente que contiene. Proponemos la distribución beta como una hipótesis de distribución de probabilidad muy apropiada, la cual hemos probado con la tabla IO de Andalucía. Hemos creado intervalos de probabilidad para cada uno de los coeficientes y definido coeficientes difusos asociados, que nos permiten obtener una matriz IO de intervalo y deducir multiplicadores de intervalo de primer orden. |
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Bibliography: | ArticleID:PIRS341 ark:/67375/WNG-FRNNHB6Q-B istex:93A68CF5F8442C38E3B3F6466F7B88DE072C479F We are grateful to two anonymous referees for their useful comments and suggestions. ObjectType-Article-2 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-1 content type line 23 |
ISSN: | 1056-8190 1435-5957 |
DOI: | 10.1111/j.1435-5957.2010.00341.x |