A Novel Heuristic Algorithm for the Modeling and Risk Assessment of the COVID-19 Pandemic Phenomenon

The modeling and risk assessment of a pandemic phenomenon such as COVID-19 is an important and complicated issue in epidemiology, and such an attempt is of great interest for public health decision-making. To this end, in the present study, based on a recent heuristic algorithm proposed by the autho...

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Published inComputer modeling in engineering & sciences Vol. 125; no. 2; pp. 815 - 828
Main Authors Asteris, Panagiotis G., Douvika, Maria G., Karamani, Chrysoula A., Skentou, Athanasia D., Chlichlia, Katerina, Cavaleri, Liborio, Daras, Tryfon, Armaghani, Danial J., Zaoutis, Theoklis E.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Henderson Tech Science Press 01.01.2020
Subjects
Algorithm
Algorithms
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Decision making
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Evolution
Fatalities
Gaussian-Function
Geographical distribution
Heuristic
Heuristic methods
Heuristic Model
Modelling
Pandemic Trend
Pandemics
Prediction
Public health
Risk assessment
SARS-CoV-2
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Summary:The modeling and risk assessment of a pandemic phenomenon such as COVID-19 is an important and complicated issue in epidemiology, and such an attempt is of great interest for public health decision-making. To this end, in the present study, based on a recent heuristic algorithm proposed by the authors, the time evolution of COVID-19 is investigated for six different countries/states, namely New York, California, USA, Iran, Sweden and UK. The number of COVID-19-related deaths is used to develop the proposed heuristic model as it is believed that the predicted number of daily deaths in each country/state includes information about the quality of the health system in each area, the age distribution of population, geographical and environmental factors as well as other conditions. Based on derived predicted epidemic curves, a new 3D-epidemic surface is proposed to assess the epidemic phenomenon at any time of its evolution. This research highlights the potential of the proposed model as a tool which can assist in the risk assessment of the COVID-19. Mapping its development through 3D-epidemic surface can assist in revealing its dynamic nature as well as differences and similarities among different districts.
Bibliography:1526-1492(20201105)125:2L.815;1-
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ISSN:1526-1492
1526-1506
1526-1506
DOI:10.32604/cmes.2020.013280