Analysis on dissemination conditions of photovoltaics in Japan by using energy system model MARKAL

• Published in: Electrical engineering in Japan Vol. 154; no. 3; pp. 27 - 37
• Main Authors: Endo, Eiichi, Ichinohe, Masayuki
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Hoboken Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company 01.02.2006
• Subjects: buy-back; carbon tax; energy systems analysis; MARKAL; photovoltaics; subsidy
• ISSN: 0424-7760; 1520-6416
• DOI: 10.1002/eej.20248

The national target for PV capacity in Japan is 4.82 GW in 2010, and several PV Roadmaps for up to 2030 are also described. To achieve the target, several support programs, such as subsidization for capital costs, Green Credit by the Green Power Certification System, and buy‐back under the Renewable Portfolio Standard law, have been already introduced. A carbon tax is still under consideration, but there are several analyses about the possibility of a carbon tax. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the PV system sales price and subsidies through buy‐back which make photovoltaics cost‐competitive with other energy technologies and make the target for PV capacity achievable by 2030 in Japan under an expected carbon tax. For the analysis, the energy system of Japan is modeled using MARKAL. Based on the results of the analysis, under a 6000 JPY/t‐C carbon tax, photovoltaics need a subsidy for a while even if we take both fuel savings and Green Credit into account. In order to attain the national target for PV capacity in 2010, photovoltaics need more expensive buy‐back than in the present, but after 2010 the necessary buy‐back decreases gradually. If 120 JPY/W PV system sales price is attained by 2030, photovoltaics become cost‐competitive without any supports. Subsidy through buy‐back becomes almost unnecessary in 2030, if we can reduce it to less than 170 JPY/W. The total necessary buy‐back reaches a peak in 2025. It is much more than ongoing subsidy to capital cost of PV systems, but annual revenue from the assumed carbon tax can finance the annual total necessary buy‐back. This means that if photovoltaics can attain the targeted PV systems sales price, we should support it for a while by spending carbon tax revenue effectively and efficiently. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 154(3): 27–37, 2006; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/eej.20248