Mapping the risk zoning of storm flood disaster based on heterogeneous data and a machine learning algorithm in Xinjiang, China

• Published in: Journal of flood risk management Vol. 14; no. 1
• Main Authors: Liu, Yan, Lu, Xinyu, Yao, Yuanzhi, Wang, Ni, Guo, Yanyun, Ji, Chunrong, Xu, Jianhui
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford, UK Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.03.2021; John Wiley & Sons, Inc; Wiley
• Subjects: Agricultural land; Algorithms; Arid regions; Arid zones; Disasters; Distribution; Economic development; Economics; Emergency preparedness; Environmental risk; Flood control; Flood mapping; Flood prevention; Flood risk; Flooding; Floods; Heterogeneity; Hydrologic data; Hydrology; Lakes; Learning algorithms; Machine learning; Mapping; Meteorological information; Monthly precipitation; Mountains; Natural disasters; Patchiness; Plateaus; Population density; random forests; Risk assessment; Rivers; Spatial distribution; Spatial heterogeneity; Statistical methods; storm flood disaster; Storms; Water management; Water resources; Water resources management; Xinjiang; Zoning; zoning maps; China
• ISSN: 1753-318X; 1753-318X
• DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12671

Mapping flood risk zone is an essential task in the arid region for sustainable water resources management. Due to the lack of hydrological and meteorological information and disaster event inventory in Xinjiang, China, storm flood disaster (SFD) risk zoning is an effective technique in investigating the potential impact of SFD. In this study, the statistics about natural, social, and risk related to SFD are collated. With the help of the compiled inventory data, a disaster risk assessment model for storm flood is proposed for the Xinjiang region based on the random forest (RF) algorithm. Randomly selected negative and positive samples from the historical SFD locations are composed of five different total samples. The overall prediction accuracy of the five sample groups attained 83.48%, indicating that the proposed RF model can well capture the spatial distribution of SFD in Xinjiang. It should also be noted that the spatial heterogeneity and complexity of SFD had a significant effect on its spatial distribution in Xinjiang. There are spatial distribution characteristics of lowland plains and high plateaus; the main mountainous regions, plains in the middle‐lower reaches of major rivers, and areas surrounding major lakes are prone to flooding. The variable importance RF indicates that the disaster risk is mainly affected by the following factors, including hazard factors, catastrophic intensity, population density, as well as economic development in the affected area. Besides, latitude, longitude, agricultural acreage, road density, distance from rivers, and the maximum monthly precipitation account for most of the increase in storm flooding disasters, and they are the main triggering point for SFD in Xinjiang. The proposed model provides some insight into the disaster in the mountainous region, and gives useful guidance for the national macro‐control of flood prevention and disaster reduction.