Forecasting innovations in science, technology, and education

Human survival depends on our ability to predict future outcomes so that professionals can make informed decisions. Human cognition and perception are optimized for local, short-term decision-making, such as deciding when to fight or flight, whom to mate, or what to eat. In the 21st century, computa...

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Published inProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 115; no. 50; pp. 12573 - 12581
Main Authors Börner, Katy, Rouse, William B., Trunfio, Paul, Stanley, H. Eugene
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States National Academy of Sciences 11.12.2018
SeriesFrom the Cover
Subjects
Cognition
COLLOQUIUM INTRODUCTION
Computer applications
Decision Making
Defensive behavior
Education
Education - trends
Evacuation routing
Forecasting
Humans
Hurricanes
Innovations
Inventions
Mathematical models
Models, Theoretical
Sackler on Modeling and Visualizing Science and Technology Developments
Science
Science - trends
Technological change
Technology
Technology - trends
Tornadoes
Weather forecasting
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Summary:Human survival depends on our ability to predict future outcomes so that professionals can make informed decisions. Human cognition and perception are optimized for local, short-term decision-making, such as deciding when to fight or flight, whom to mate, or what to eat. In the 21st century, computational models and visualizations of model results inform much of humans decision-making: near real-time weather forecasts help us decide when to take an umbrella, plant, or harvest; where to ground airplanes; or when to evacuate inhabitants in the path of a hurricane, tornado, or flood. Here, Borner et al look at the tends and development of forecasting innovations in science, technology, and education.
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Author contributions: K.B., W.B.R., P.T., and H.E.S. designed research, performed research, and wrote the paper.
This paper results from the Arthur M. Sackler Colloquium of the National Academy of Sciences, “Modeling and Visualizing Science and Technology Developments,” held December 4–5, 2017, at the Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center of the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering in Irvine, CA. The complete program and video recordings of most presentations are available on the NAS website at www.nasonline.org/modeling_and_visualizing.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1818750115