Collective decision making by rational individuals

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 115; no. 44; pp. E10387 - E10396
• Main Author: Mann, Richard P.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States National Academy of Sciences 30.10.2018
• Series: PNAS Plus
• Subjects: Animals; Behavioral decision theory; Biological Sciences; Collective action; Data Collection - methods; Decision making; Decision Making - physiology; Decision making models; Decision Theory; Decisions; Human behavior; Humans; Interpersonal Relations; Mathematical models; Model testing; Physical Sciences; PNAS Plus; Predictions; Rationality; Social Behavior; Social interactions; Stochasticity; Variability; utility; agent-based model; social information; collective behavior; rational choice
• ISSN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1811964115

The patterns and mechanisms of collective decision making in humans and animals have attracted both empirical and theoretical attention. Of particular interest has been the variety of social feedback rules and the extent to which these behavioral rules can be explained and predicted from theories of rational estimation and decision making. However, models that aim to model the full range of social information use have incorporated ad hoc departures from rational decision-making theory to explain the apparent stochasticity and variability of behavior. In this paper I develop a model of social information use and collective decision making by fully rational agents that reveals how a wide range of apparently stochastic social decision rules emerge from fundamental information asymmetries both between individuals and between the decision makers and the observer of those decisions. As well as showing that rational decision making is consistent with empirical observations of collective behavior, this model makes several testable predictions about how individuals make decisions in groups and offers a valuable perspective on how we view sources of variability in animal, and human, behavior.