The interplay of movement and spatiotemporal variation in transmission degrades pandemic control

Successful public health regimes for COVID-19 push below unity longterm regional Rt —the average number of secondary cases caused by an infectious individual. We use a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model for two coupled populations to make the conceptual point that asynchronous, variable lo...

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Published inProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 117; no. 48; pp. 30104 - 30106
Main Authors Kortessis, Nicholas, Simon, Margaret W., Barfield, Michael, Glass, Gregory E., Singer, Burton H., Holt, Robert D.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States National Academy of Sciences 01.12.2020
SeriesBrief Report
Subjects
Biological Sciences
BRIEF REPORTS
COVID-19
COVID-19 - prevention & control
COVID-19 - transmission
Heterogeneity
Humans
Mitigation
Movement
Pandemics
Pandemics - prevention & control
Populations
Public health
Spatio-Temporal Analysis
Time Factors
COVID-19
inflationary effect
spatiotemporal variation
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Summary:Successful public health regimes for COVID-19 push below unity longterm regional Rt —the average number of secondary cases caused by an infectious individual. We use a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model for two coupled populations to make the conceptual point that asynchronous, variable local control, together with movement between populations, elevates long-term regional Rt , and cumulative cases, and may even prevent disease eradication that is otherwise possible. For effective pandemic mitigation strategies, it is critical that models encompass both spatiotemporal heterogeneity in transmission and movement.
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Author contributions: N.K., M.W.S., M.B., G.E.G., B.H.S., and R.D.H. designed research; N.K., M.W.S., and M.B. performed research; and N.K., M.W.S., M.B., G.E.G., B.H.S., and R.D.H. wrote the paper.
Edited by Simon A. Levin, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, and approved October 5, 2020 (received for review August 29, 2020)
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.2018286117