Implications of Zika virus and congenital Zika syndrome for the number of live births in Brazil

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 115; no. 24; pp. 6177 - 6182
• Main Authors: Castro, Marcia C., Han, Qiuyi C., Carvalho, Lucas R., Victora, Cesar G., França, Giovanny V. A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States National Academy of Sciences 12.06.2018
• Subjects: Babies; Births; Complications; Congenital diseases; Demographics; Disease transmission; Epidemics; Epidemiology; Fetuses; Health care; Infant mortality; Microcephaly; Microencephaly; Outbreaks; Pregnancy complications; Public health; Reproductive health; Reproductive rights; Social Sciences; Socioeconomics; Time series; Vector-borne diseases; Viruses; Zika virus; Brazil; Brazil; Zika virus; abortion; congenital Zika syndrome; births
• ISSN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1718476115

An increase in microcephaly, associated with an epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV) in Brazil, prompted the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2016. While knowledge on biological and epidemiological aspects of ZIKV has advanced, demographic impacts remain poorly understood. This study uses time-series analysis to assess the impact of ZIKV on births. Data on births, fetal deaths, and hospitalizations due to abortion complications for Brazilian states, from 2010 to 2016, were used. Forecasts for September 2015 to December 2016 showed that 119,095 fewer births than expected were observed, particularly after April 2016 (a reduction significant at 0.05), demonstrating a link between publicity associated with the ZIKV epidemic and the decline in births. No significant changes were observed in fetal death rates. Although no significant increases in hospitalizations were forecasted, after the ZIKV outbreak hospitalizations happened earlier in the gestational period in most states. We argue that postponement of pregnancy and an increase in abortions may have contributed to the decline in births. Also, it is likely that an increase in safe abortions happened, albeit selective by socioeconomic status. Thus, the ZIKV epidemic resulted in a generation of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) babies that reflect and exacerbate regional and social inequalities. Since ZIKV transmission has declined, it is unlikely that reductions in births will continue. However, the possibility of a new epidemic is real. There is a need to address gaps in reproductive health and rights, and to understand CZS risk to better inform conception decisions.