Trade-offs and synergies between universal electricity access and climate change mitigation in Sub-Saharan Africa

• Published in: Energy policy Vol. 114; pp. 355 - 366
• Main Authors: Dagnachew, Anteneh G., Lucas, Paul L., Hof, Andries F., van Vuuren, Detlef P.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.03.2018; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Access; Climate change; Climate change mitigation; Climate policy; Electric appliances; Electric rates; Electricity; Electricity access; Electricity pricing; Emissions; Emissions control; Energy policy; Environmental policy; Fossil fuels; Household appliances; International trade; Investment; Investments; Mitigation; Policies; Policy making; Power; Prices; Production; Savings; Services; Sub-Saharan Africa; Subsidies; Tariffs; Tradeoffs; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Electricity access; Climate change mitigation; Sub-Saharan Africa
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.12.023

Access to electricity services is fundamental to development, as it enables improvements to the quality of human life. At the same time, increasing electricity access can have notable consequences for global climate change. This paper analyses trade-offs and synergies between achieving universal electricity access and climate change mitigation in Sub-Saharan Africa, using the IMAGE-TIMER integrated assessment model. For this purpose, we analysed developments in a number of indicators that describe demand, production, and costs of the future power system under various scenarios with and without climate change mitigation policies. The results show that, achieving universal electricity access requires an annual investment of USD 27–33 billion until 2030 on top of baseline investment. There is a strong synergy in emissions reduction and investment savings, particularly driven by the regions’ efficiency improvements of household appliances (the purchase of efficient appliances and the efficient use of the appliances). On the other hand, climate mitigation policies are projected to increase the cost of electricity per kWh, depending on fossil fuel share in the mix. Therefore, we conclude that, climate policies will need to be combined with complementary policies- e.g. pro-poor tariffs, fuel subsidies, and cross subsidization- to protect the poor from increasing electricity prices. •This paper looks at electricity access and climate change mitigation in Sub-Saharan Africa.•Climate change impacts of universal electricity access are small.•Carbon pricing increases electricity prices but stimulates efficiency improvements.•Universal electricity access requires annual investment of USD 27-33 billion.•The impact of external climate change mitigation policies on Sub-Saharan Africa is modest.