Five-year post-restoration conditions and simulated climate-change trajectories in a warm/dry mixed-conifer forest, southwestern Colorado, USA

• Published in: Forest ecology and management Vol. 356; pp. 253 - 261
• Main Authors: Stoddard, M.T., Sánchez Meador, A.J., Fulé, Peter Z., Korb, Julie E.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 15.11.2015
• Subjects: Climate; Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator; Density; Drying; Ecological restoration; Ecology; Forests; Historical reference conditions; Pinus ponderosa; Prescribed fire; Restoration; Thinning; Trees; USA, Colorado; Ecological restoration; Thinning; Prescribed fire; Historical reference conditions; Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator
• ISSN: 0378-1127; 1872-7042
• DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2015.07.007

•Warm/dry mixed-conifer forests are at increasing risk of large, high-severity fire.•Thin/burn treatment sustained forest structure within reference conditions.•Forest structure in burn-only treatment remained outside reference conditions.•Changes following treatments were largely due to increases in sprouting species.•Forest structure predicted to persist after thin/burn treatment given projected climate change. Some warm/dry mixed-conifer forests are at increasing risk of uncharacteristically large, high-severity fires. As a result, managers have begun ecological restoration efforts using treatments such as mechanical thinning and prescribed fire. Empirical information on the long-term impacts of these treatments is limited, especially in light of potential climate change. We assessed changes in forest structure and composition five-years following three alternative restoration treatments in a warm/dry mixed-conifer forest: (1) thin/burn, (2) prescribe burn, and (3) control. We used the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS) model to quantify potential forest trajectories under alternative climate scenarios. Five years following treatments, changes in forest structure were similar to initial post-treatment conditions, with thin/burn being the only treatment to shift and maintain forest structure and composition within historical reference conditions. By 2013, the thin/burn had reduced basal area (11.3m2ha−1) and tree density (117.2treeha−1) by 56% and 79% respectively, compared to pre-treatment values. In the burn, basal area (20.5m2ha−1) and tree density (316.6treeha−1) was reduced by 20% and 35% respectively, from 2002 to 2013. Mortality of large ponderosa pine trees (the most fire-resistant species) throughout the duration of the experiment, averaged 6% in the burn compared to 16% in the thin/burn treatment. Changes five years following treatments were largely due to increases in sprouting species. Shrub and sapling densities were approximately two to three times higher (respectively) in the thin/burn compared to burn and control and dominated by sprouting oak and aspen. Under climate simulations, the thin/burn was more resilient in maintaining forest conditions compared to burn and control which approached meager forest conditions (3–4m2ha−1). These results indicate that restoration treatment that include both thinning and burning can maintain forest integrity over the next few decades.