Heuristics as beliefs and as behaviors: The adaptiveness of the “hot hand”

Gigerenzer (2000) and Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner’s goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief in the “hot hand” in basketball suggests that players experiencing streaks should be given more shots, but...

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Published inCognitive psychology Vol. 48; no. 3; pp. 295 - 331
Main Author Burns, Bruce D.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Amsterdam Elsevier Inc 01.05.2004
Elsevier
Academic Press
Subjects
Adaptation, Psychological
Adaptive thinking
Adjustment (to Environment)
Athletics
Behavior
Beliefs
Biological and medical sciences
Cognition & reasoning
Cognition. Intelligence
Cognitive Psychology
Cues
Culture
Decision Making
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Heuristic
Heuristics
Hot hand
Humans
Markov Processes
Models, Psychological
Psychology
Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry
Psychology. Psychophysiology
Reasoning. Problem solving
Sequential information
Simulation
Social Behavior
Streaks
Thinking Skills
Streaks
Adaptive thinking
Sequential information
Hot hand
Decision making
Belief
Human
Sport
Computer simulation
Reasoning
Heuristic method
Cognition
Markov model
Basketball
Experimental study
Adaptation
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Abstract Gigerenzer (2000) and Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner’s goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief in the “hot hand” in basketball suggests that players experiencing streaks should be given more shots, but this has been seen as a fallacy due to Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) failure to find dependencies between players’ shots. Based on their findings, I demonstrate by Markov modeling and simulation that streaks are valid allocation cues for deciding who to give shots to, because this behavior achieves the team goal of scoring more. Empirically I show that this adaptive heuristic is supported by the fallacious belief in dependency, more so as skill level increases. I extend the theoretical analysis to identify general conditions under which following streaks should be beneficial. Overall, this approach illustrates the advantages of analyzing reasoning in terms of adaptiveness.
AbstractList Gigerenzer (2000) and Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner's goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief in the "hot hand" in basketball suggests that players experiencing streaks should be given more shots, but this has been seen as a fallacy due to Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) failure to find dependencies between players' shots. Based on their findings, I demonstrate by Markov modeling and simulation that streaks are valid allocation cues for deciding who to give shots to, because this behavior achieves the team goal of scoring more. Empirically I show that this adaptive heuristic is supported by the fallacious belief in dependency, more so as skill level increases. I extend the theoretical analysis to identify general conditions under which following streaks should be beneficial. Overall, this approach illustrates the advantages of analyzing reasoning in terms of adaptiveness. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
and analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner's goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief in the "hot hand" in basketball suggests that players experiencing streaks should be given more shots, but this has been seen as a fallacy due to failure to find dependencies between players' shots. Based on their findings, I demonstrate by Markov modeling and simulation that streaks are valid allocation cues for deciding who to give shots to, because this behavior achieves the team goal of scoring more. Empirically I show that this adaptive heuristic is supported by the fallacious belief in dependency, more so as skill level increases. I extend the theoretical analysis to identify general conditions under which following streaks should be beneficial. Overall, this approach illustrates the advantages of analyzing reasoning in terms of adaptiveness.
Gigerenzer (2000) and Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner’s goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief in the “hot hand” in basketball suggests that players experiencing streaks should be given more shots, but this has been seen as a fallacy due to Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) failure to find dependencies between players’ shots. Based on their findings, I demonstrate by Markov modeling and simulation that streaks are valid allocation cues for deciding who to give shots to, because this behavior achieves the team goal of scoring more. Empirically I show that this adaptive heuristic is supported by the fallacious belief in dependency, more so as skill level increases. I extend the theoretical analysis to identify general conditions under which following streaks should be beneficial. Overall, this approach illustrates the advantages of analyzing reasoning in terms of adaptiveness.
Gigerenzer (2000) and Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner's goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief in the ''hot hand'' in basketball suggests that players experiencing streaks should be given more shots, but this has been seen as a fallacy due to Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) failure to find dependencies between players' shots. Based on their findings, I demonstrate by Markov modeling and simulation that streaks are valid allocation cues for deciding who to give shots to, because this behavior achieves the team goal of scoring more. Empirically I show that this adaptive heuristic is supported by the fallacious belief in dependency, more so as skill level increases. I extend the theoretical analysis to identify general conditions under which following streaks should be beneficial. Overall, this approach illustrates the advantages of analyzing reasoning in terms of adaptiveness.
Author Burns, Bruce D.
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Issue 3
Keywords Streaks
Adaptive thinking
Sequential information
Hot hand
Decision making
Belief
Human
Sport
Computer simulation
Reasoning
Heuristic method
Cognition
Markov model
Basketball
Experimental study
Adaptation
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Snippet Gigerenzer (2000) and Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner’s goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than...
Gigerenzer (2000) and Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner's goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than...
and analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner's goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief...
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SubjectTerms Adaptation, Psychological
Adaptive thinking
Adjustment (to Environment)
Athletics
Behavior
Beliefs
Biological and medical sciences
Cognition & reasoning
Cognition. Intelligence
Cognitive Psychology
Cues
Culture
Decision Making
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Heuristic
Heuristics
Hot hand
Humans
Markov Processes
Models, Psychological
Psychology
Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry
Psychology. Psychophysiology
Reasoning. Problem solving
Sequential information
Simulation
Social Behavior
Streaks
Thinking Skills
Title Heuristics as beliefs and as behaviors: The adaptiveness of the “hot hand”
URI https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cogpsych.2003.07.003
http://eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/detail?accno=EJ730331
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15020214
https://www.proquest.com/docview/213641971
https://search.proquest.com/docview/71723359
Volume 48
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