Heuristics as beliefs and as behaviors: The adaptiveness of the “hot hand”
Gigerenzer (2000) and Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner’s goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief in the “hot hand” in basketball suggests that players experiencing streaks should be given more shots, but...
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Published in | Cognitive psychology Vol. 48; no. 3; pp. 295 - 331 |
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Main Author | |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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Amsterdam
Elsevier Inc
01.05.2004
Elsevier Academic Press |
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Abstract | Gigerenzer (2000) and
Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner’s goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief in the “hot hand” in basketball suggests that players experiencing streaks should be given more shots, but this has been seen as a fallacy due to
Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) failure to find dependencies between players’ shots. Based on their findings, I demonstrate by Markov modeling and simulation that streaks are valid allocation cues for deciding who to give shots to, because this behavior achieves the team goal of scoring more. Empirically I show that this adaptive heuristic is supported by the fallacious belief in dependency, more so as skill level increases. I extend the theoretical analysis to identify general conditions under which following streaks should be beneficial. Overall, this approach illustrates the advantages of analyzing reasoning in terms of adaptiveness. |
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AbstractList | Gigerenzer (2000) and Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner's goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief in the "hot hand" in basketball suggests that players experiencing streaks should be given more shots, but this has been seen as a fallacy due to Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) failure to find dependencies between players' shots. Based on their findings, I demonstrate by Markov modeling and simulation that streaks are valid allocation cues for deciding who to give shots to, because this behavior achieves the team goal of scoring more. Empirically I show that this adaptive heuristic is supported by the fallacious belief in dependency, more so as skill level increases. I extend the theoretical analysis to identify general conditions under which following streaks should be beneficial. Overall, this approach illustrates the advantages of analyzing reasoning in terms of adaptiveness. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] and analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner's goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief in the "hot hand" in basketball suggests that players experiencing streaks should be given more shots, but this has been seen as a fallacy due to failure to find dependencies between players' shots. Based on their findings, I demonstrate by Markov modeling and simulation that streaks are valid allocation cues for deciding who to give shots to, because this behavior achieves the team goal of scoring more. Empirically I show that this adaptive heuristic is supported by the fallacious belief in dependency, more so as skill level increases. I extend the theoretical analysis to identify general conditions under which following streaks should be beneficial. Overall, this approach illustrates the advantages of analyzing reasoning in terms of adaptiveness. Gigerenzer (2000) and Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner’s goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief in the “hot hand” in basketball suggests that players experiencing streaks should be given more shots, but this has been seen as a fallacy due to Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) failure to find dependencies between players’ shots. Based on their findings, I demonstrate by Markov modeling and simulation that streaks are valid allocation cues for deciding who to give shots to, because this behavior achieves the team goal of scoring more. Empirically I show that this adaptive heuristic is supported by the fallacious belief in dependency, more so as skill level increases. I extend the theoretical analysis to identify general conditions under which following streaks should be beneficial. Overall, this approach illustrates the advantages of analyzing reasoning in terms of adaptiveness. Gigerenzer (2000) and Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner's goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief in the ''hot hand'' in basketball suggests that players experiencing streaks should be given more shots, but this has been seen as a fallacy due to Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) failure to find dependencies between players' shots. Based on their findings, I demonstrate by Markov modeling and simulation that streaks are valid allocation cues for deciding who to give shots to, because this behavior achieves the team goal of scoring more. Empirically I show that this adaptive heuristic is supported by the fallacious belief in dependency, more so as skill level increases. I extend the theoretical analysis to identify general conditions under which following streaks should be beneficial. Overall, this approach illustrates the advantages of analyzing reasoning in terms of adaptiveness. |
Author | Burns, Bruce D. |
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Keywords | Streaks Adaptive thinking Sequential information Hot hand Decision making Belief Human Sport Computer simulation Reasoning Heuristic method Cognition Markov model Basketball Experimental study Adaptation |
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Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner’s goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than... Gigerenzer (2000) and Anderson (1990) analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner's goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than... and analyzed reasoning by asking: what are the reasoner's goals? This emphasizes the adaptiveness of behavior rather than whether a belief is normative. Belief... |
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SubjectTerms | Adaptation, Psychological Adaptive thinking Adjustment (to Environment) Athletics Behavior Beliefs Biological and medical sciences Cognition & reasoning Cognition. Intelligence Cognitive Psychology Cues Culture Decision Making Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology Heuristic Heuristics Hot hand Humans Markov Processes Models, Psychological Psychology Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry Psychology. Psychophysiology Reasoning. Problem solving Sequential information Simulation Social Behavior Streaks Thinking Skills |
Title | Heuristics as beliefs and as behaviors: The adaptiveness of the “hot hand” |
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