Ozone and its projection in regard to climate change

• Published in: Atmospheric environment (1994) Vol. 67; pp. 287 - 295
• Main Authors: Melkonyan, Ani, Wagner, Patrick
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.03.2013; Elsevier
• Subjects: Applied sciences; ARIMA model; Atmospheric pollution; Atmospherics; Climate change; Exact sciences and technology; Global climate change; Limit values; North Rhine-Westphalia; NOx- and VOC-limited regimes; Ozone; Ozone production; Pollutants physicochemistry study: properties, effects, reactions, transport and distribution; Pollution; Probability of ozone exceedances; Probability theory; Projection; Rural; Stations; Europe; Germany; North Rhine-Westphalia; EGGE; NO; O3; NMVOC; IPCC; Ozone production; NOx- and VOC-limited regimes; Probability of ozone exceedances; VOC; SRES; ARIMA model; NO2; Limit values; NRW; LANUV; AVOC; BVOC; WALS; Global climate change; North Rhine-Westphalia; Stochastic model; Photochemical oxidants; Century 21st; Ozone; and VOC-limited regimes; Climate prediction; Dynamical climatology; Climate change; Autoregressive integrated moving average model; High atmospheric pollution episode; Statistical model; Global change; Atmospheric pollution forecasting; Air pollution
• ISSN: 1352-2310; 1873-2844
• DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.10.023

In this paper, the dependence of ozone-forming potential on temperature was analysed based on data from two stations (with an industrial and rural background, respectively) in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, for the period of 1983–2007. After examining the interrelations between ozone, NOx and temperature, a projection of the days with ozone exceedance (over a limit value of a daily maximum 8-h average≥120 μg m−3 for 25 days per year averaged for 3 years) in terms of global climate change was made using probability theory and an autoregression integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The results show that with a temperature increase of 3 K, the frequency of days when ozone exceeds its limit value will increase by 135% at the industrial station and by 87% at the rural background station. ► Ozone dependence on NOx and temperature at industrial and rural stations. ► Prediction of number of days with ozone exceedances in terms of climate change. ► Frequency of bad ozone days increases by 135% at the industrial station. ► Frequency of bad ozone days increases by 87% at the rural station. ► Ozone forming potential is significantly higher in rural areas than in urban ones.