Modeling the cost of bird strikes to US civil aircraft

• Published in: Transportation research. Part D, Transport and environment Vol. 38; pp. 49 - 58
• Main Authors: Anderson, Aaron, Carpenter, David S., Begier, Michael J., Blackwell, Bradley F., DeVault, Travis L., Shwiff, Stephanie A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier India Pvt Ltd 01.07.2015
• Subjects: Aerospace engines; Aging aircraft; Aircraft; Aircraft components; Bird strikes; Costs; Damage; Determinants; Ingestion; Management; Probit; Regression; Regression; Costs; Management; Aircraft; Probit; Bird strikes
• ISSN: 1361-9209; 1879-2340
• DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2015.04.027

•A two-part regression model was used to model bird strike-related costs.•Bird size, the number of birds, and engine ingestions are the largest determinants of strike-related costs.•The results can be used to better understand spatial and temporal variation in strike costs. The objective of our analysis is to develop a model of damage costs that arise from collisions between aircraft and birds, based on data drawn from the Federal Aviation Administration National Wildlife Strike Database (NWSD). We develop a two-part model, composed of two separate statistical models, that accounts for the effects of aircraft mass category, engine type, component of the aircraft struck, and the size and number of birds struck. Our results indicate the size of bird, number of birds, and engine ingestions are the largest determinants of strike-related costs. More generally, our result is a model that provides a better understanding of the determinants of damage costs and that can be used to interpolate the substantial amount of missing data on damage costs that currently exists within the NWSD. A more complete accounting of damage costs will allow a better understanding of how damage costs vary geographically and temporally and, thus, enable more efficient allocation of management resources across airports and seasons.