Predicting Intensive Care Unit Length of Stay After Acute Type A Aortic Dissection Surgery Using Machine Learning
Background: Patients with acute type A aortic dissection are usually transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU) after surgery. Prolonged ICU length of stay (ICU-LOS) is associated with higher level of care and higher mortality. We aimed to develop and validate machine learning models for predictin...
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Published in | Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine Vol. 8; p. 675431 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Frontiers Media S.A
12.07.2021
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Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | Background:
Patients with acute type A aortic dissection are usually transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU) after surgery. Prolonged ICU length of stay (ICU-LOS) is associated with higher level of care and higher mortality. We aimed to develop and validate machine learning models for predicting ICU-LOS after acute type A aortic dissection surgery.
Methods:
A total of 353 patients with acute type A aortic dissection transferred to ICU after surgery from September 2016 to August 2019 were included. The patients were randomly divided into the training dataset (70%) and the validation dataset (30%). Eighty-four preoperative and intraoperative factors were collected for each patient. ICU-LOS was divided into four intervals (<4, 4–7, 7–10, and >10 days) according to interquartile range. Kendall correlation coefficient was used to identify factors associated with ICU-LOS. Five classic classifiers, Naive Bayes, Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree, were developed to predict ICU-LOS. Area under the curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the models' performance.
Results:
The mean age of patients was 51.0 ± 10.9 years and 307 (87.0%) were males. Twelve predictors were identified for ICU-LOS, namely, D-dimer, serum creatinine, lactate dehydrogenase, cardiopulmonary bypass time, fasting blood glucose, white blood cell count, surgical time, aortic cross-clamping time, with Marfan's syndrome, without Marfan's syndrome, without aortic aneurysm, and platelet count. Random Forest yielded the highest performance, with an AUC of 0.991 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.978–1.000) and 0.837 (95% CI: 0.766–0.908) in the training and validation datasets, respectively.
Conclusions:
Machine learning has the potential to predict ICU-LOS for acute type A aortic dissection. This tool could improve the management of ICU resources and patient-throughput planning, and allow better communication with patients and their families. |
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Bibliography: | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 These authors have contributed equally to this work Reviewed by: Debasis Das, Narayana Superspeciality Hospital, Howrah, India; Biswarup Purkayastha, CK Birla Hospitals, India This article was submitted to Heart Surgery, a section of the journal Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine Edited by: Pradeep Narayan, Rabindranath Tagore International Institute of Cardiac Sciences (RTIICS), India |
ISSN: | 2297-055X 2297-055X |
DOI: | 10.3389/fcvm.2021.675431 |