Rigorous Regional Air Quality Standards for Substantial Health Benefits

• Published in: Earth's future Vol. 11; no. 12
• Main Authors: Zhang, Wenxiao, Xu, Haoran, Yu, Xinyuan, Li, Jin, Zhang, Yuanzheng, Dai, Rong, Zheng, Shuxiu, Meng, Wenjun, Shen, Huizhong, Chen, Yilin, Shen, Guofeng, Ma, Jianmin, Li, Bengang, Liu, Junfeng, Wang, Xuejun, Tao, Shu
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bognor Regis John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.12.2023; Wiley
• Subjects: Air pollution; Air pollution control; Air quality; Air quality standards; ambient PM2.5; Cities; cost–benefit analyses; Councils; Emissions; Environmental monitoring; health benefits; Industrial plant emissions; Investments; Momentum; Outdoor air quality; Particulate matter; Pollutants; Pollution control; Quality standards; regional standard; Regression models; Trends; VOCs; Volatile organic compounds; Weather; China
• ISSN: 2328-4277; 2328-4277
• DOI: 10.1029/2023EF003860

Following a series of actions in China, the annual mean fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations have considerably reduced since 2013. However, in some cities, the PM2.5 concentrations exceed the national ambient air quality standard of 35 μg/m3. Herein, we evaluated the historical trends of PM2.5 from 2014 to 2022 in mainland China and found continuously declining trends. However, the annual decline rates decreased despite increasing investments on pollution control, showing considerably diminishing marginal effects of these investments. Accumulative reduction in PM2.5 concentrations is linearly dependent on the log‐transformed accumulative investment in air pollution control. The standard of 35 μg/m3 can be achieved by 2035 if the current efforts continue at the same pace. However, the standard of 35 μg/m3 can weaken the momentum of future actions in cities where the standard has already been implemented. We proposed and tested two tiers with four or six levels of specific regional standards based on the regression model predictions from the historical data and demonstrated that more rigorous standards for regions where the current standard is already attained could provide more momentum for strengthening abatement efforts. The results show that both tiers are feasible if the level of abatement endeavor is maintained even with marginal effects. We also demonstrate that additional 135,000 or 384,000 deaths can be avoided by applying the regional standards. Health benefits are monetized and compared with the control costs, suggesting that compared to Tier‐2, Tier‐1 is more cost‐effective and balanced across the mainland China. Plain Language Summary Air quality in China has substantially improved since 2013 and the goal of meeting the national standard of 35 μg/m3 is expected to be achieved by 2035. However, with significant spatial variations, a single standard will be very likely to weaken the momentum of future actions in cities where the standard has already been attained. We proposed two tiers of regional standards by quantifying the declining trends of PM2.5 since 2013 for individual provinces. The feasibility and cost–benefit of the regional standards were evaluated, and the environmental and health benefits of implementing the local standards were demonstrated. Key Points Different regional air quality standards for PM2.5 are feasible and more beneficial than a single national one in China Implementing the regional PM2.5 standards well developed in this study in 2035 will avoid additional 135,000–384,000 deaths