Seasonal and regional variations in extreme precipitation event frequency using CMIP5

Understanding how the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are changing is important for regional risk assessments and adaptation planning. Here we use observational data and an ensemble of climate change model experiments (from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (C...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inGeophysical research letters Vol. 43; no. 10; pp. 5385 - 5393
Main Authors Janssen, E., Sriver, R. L., Wuebbles, D. J., Kunkel, K. E.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Washington John Wiley & Sons, Inc 28.05.2016
Subjects
Adaptation
Amplification
Annual variations
Assessments
Atmospheric precipitations
Climate
Climate change
Climate change models
Climate models
climate projections
CMIP5
Computer simulation
extreme precipitation
Extreme weather
Impact analysis
Intercomparison
Phase shift
Phase transitions
Precipitation
Regional analysis
Regional planning
Regional variations
Risk assessment
seasonal precipitation
Seasonal variation
Seasonal variations
Seasonality
Spring
Spring (season)
Summer
Uncertainty
Variability
United States > US
USA
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Summary:Understanding how the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are changing is important for regional risk assessments and adaptation planning. Here we use observational data and an ensemble of climate change model experiments (from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)) to examine past and potential future seasonal changes in extreme precipitation event frequency over the United States. Using the extreme precipitation index as a metric for extreme precipitation change, we find key differences between models and observations. In particular, the CMIP5 models tend to overestimate the number of spring events and underestimate the number of summer events. This seasonal shift in the models is amplified in projections. These results provide a basis for evaluating climate model skill in simulating observed seasonality and changes in regional extreme precipitation. Additionally, we highlight key sources of variability and uncertainty that can potentially inform regional impact analyses and adaptation planning. Key Points Historical CMIP5 simulations shift the EPI from summer to spring for most regions A future increase in seasonal contribution of the EPI during winter is projected for most regions The summer to spring shift in the EPI is projected to increase for most regions through 2100
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ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1002/2016GL069151