Sustainable bridge design by metamodel-assisted multi-objective optimization and decision-making under uncertainty

• Published in: Journal of cleaner production Vol. 202; pp. 904 - 915
• Main Authors: García-Segura, Tatiana, Penadés-Plà, Vicent, Yepes, Víctor
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 20.11.2018
• Subjects: attitudes and opinions; case studies; concrete; corrosion; Decision-making; design for environment; embodied energy; Energy efficiency; multi-criteria decision making; Multi-objective optimization; social impact; stakeholders; Sustainable criteria; Uncertainty; Decision-making; Uncertainty; Multi-objective optimization; Energy efficiency; Sustainable criteria
• ISSN: 0959-6526; 1879-1786
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.08.177

Today, bridge design seeks not only to minimize cost, but also to minimize adverse environmental and social impacts. This multi-criteria decision-making problem is subject to variability of the opinions of stakeholders regarding the importance of criteria for sustainability. As a result, this paper proposes a method for designing and selecting optimally sustainable bridges under the uncertainty of criteria comparison. A Pareto set of solutions is obtained using a metamodel-assisted multi-objective optimization. A new decision-making technique introduces the uncertainty of the decision-maker's preference through triangular distributions and thereby ranks the sustainable bridge designs. The method is illustrated by a case study of a three-span post-tensioned concrete box-girder bridge designed according to the embodied energy, overall safety and corrosion initiation time. In this particular case, 211 efficient solutions are reduced to two preferred solutions which have a probability of being selected of 81.6% and 18.4%. In addition, a sensitivity analysis validates the influence of the uncertainty regarding the decision-making. The approach proposed allows actors involved in the bridge design and decision-making to determine the best sustainable design by finding the probability of a given design being chosen. •A method selects sustainable bridge designs under the uncertainty of the judgments.•Durable bridges are also sustainable in terms of embodied energy and safety.•The sensitivity analysis shows the influence of uncertainty on the decision-making.•The optimum prior selection reduces the variability of the preferred solution.•The domain of one criterion reduces the probability of selecting diverse alternatives.