Why We Can No Longer Ignore Consecutive Disasters

• Published in: Earth's future Vol. 8; no. 3
• Main Authors: Ruiter, Marleen C., Couasnon, Anaïs, Homberg, Marc J. C., Daniell, James E., Gill, Joel C., Ward, Philip J.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bognor Regis John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.03.2020; Wiley
• Subjects: Climate change; compound disasters; consecutive disasters; Cyclones; Disaster management; Disaster relief; Disaster risk; Disasters; Earthquakes; Emergency preparedness; Emergency response; Empirical analysis; extreme events; First responders; Floods; Infrastructure; Insured losses; Multi‐hazard; Multi‐risk; Risk assessment; Risk management; Storm damage; Japan
• ISSN: 2328-4277; 2328-4277
• DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001425

In recent decades, a striking number of countries have suffered from consecutive disasters: events whose impacts overlap both spatially and temporally, while recovery is still under way. The risk of consecutive disasters will increase due to growing exposure, the interconnectedness of human society, and the increased frequency and intensity of nontectonic hazard. This paper provides an overview of the different types of consecutive disasters, their causes, and impacts. The impacts can be distinctly different from disasters occurring in isolation (both spatially and temporally) from other disasters, noting that full isolation never occurs. We use existing empirical disaster databases to show the global probabilistic occurrence for selected hazard types. Current state‐of‐the art risk assessment models and their outputs do not allow for a thorough representation and analysis of consecutive disasters. This is mainly due to the many challenges that are introduced by addressing and combining hazards of different nature, and accounting for their interactions and dynamics. Disaster risk management needs to be more holistic and codesigned between researchers, policy makers, first responders, and companies. Key Points The number of countries suffering from consecutive disasters is increasing, and their impacts can be distinctly different from single disasters An overview is provided of the state‐of‐the‐art in the understanding of consecutive disasters as discussed in the literature As current scientific models and policy settings do not allow to properly assess the risk of consecutive disasters and their impacts, we identify a roadmap for the future