Gaussian approach for probability and correlation between the number of COVID-19 cases and the air pollution in Lima

• Published in: Urban climate Vol. 33; p. 100664
• Main Authors: Arias Velásquez, Ricardo Manuel, Mejía Lara, Jennifer Vanessa
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.09.2020
• Subjects: Air pollution; Correlation analysis; COVID-19; Lima; COVID-19; Air pollution; Correlation analysis; Lima
• ISSN: 2212-0955; 2212-0955
• DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100664

At the end of February 2020, Peru started the first cases of pneumonia associated with coronavirus (COVID-19), they were reported in Lima, Peru (Rodriguez-Morales et al., 2020). Therefore, the first week on March started with 72 infected people, the government published new law for a national crisis by COVID-19 pandemic (Vizcarra et al., 2020), with a quarantine in each city of Peru. Our analysis has considered March and April 2020, for air quality measurement and infections in Lima, the data collected on 6 meteorological stations with CO (carbon monoxide), NO2 (nitrogen oxide), O3 (ozone), SO2 (sulfur dioxide), PM10 and PM2.5 (particle matter with diameter aerodynamic less than 2.5 and 10 m respectively). As a result, the average of these concentrations and the hospital information is recollected per hour. This analysis is executed during the quarantine an important correlation is discovered in the zone with highest infection by COVID-19, NO2 and PM10, even though in a reduction of air pollution in Lima. In this paper, we proposed a classification model by Reduced-Space Gaussian Process Regression for air pollution and infections; with technological and environmental dynamics and global change associated COVID-19. An evaluation of zones in Lima city, results have demonstrated influence of industrial influence in air pollution and infections by COVID-19 before and after quarantine during the last 28 days since the first infection in Peru; the problems relating to data management were validated with a successful classification and cluster analysis for future works in COVID-19 influence by environmental conditions. •Approach with Reduced-Space Gaussian Process Regression for air quality and infections•High values of NO2 increased number of infections with and without quarantine.•Quarantine actions decreased PM2.5 and PM10 influence, but NO2 has more life cycle.•COVID-19 infections and NO2 have high correlation in quarantine characteristics.•NO2 and Infections have a correlation of 99.27% in industrial zones.