Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015–2099

Northwest China is one of the most arid regions in the world and has experienced intriguing climate warming and humidification. Nonetheless, future climate conditions in Northwest China still remain uncertain. In this study, we applied an ensemble of the 12 latest model simulations of the Coupled Mo...

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Published inAdvances in climate change research Vol. 11; no. 3; pp. 210 - 217
Main Authors Li, Su-Yuan, Miao, Li-Juan, Jiang, Zhi-Hong, Wang, Guo-Jie, Gnyawali, Kaushal Raj, Zhang, Jing, Zhang, Hui, Fang, Ke, He, Yu, Li, Chun
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Amsterdam Elsevier 01.09.2020
Elsevier B.V
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd
Subjects
Climate change
CMIP6
Drought
Dryland
Northwest China
PDSI
Climate change
CMIP6
Drought
Northwest China
Dryland
PDSI
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Summary:Northwest China is one of the most arid regions in the world and has experienced intriguing climate warming and humidification. Nonetheless, future climate conditions in Northwest China still remain uncertain. In this study, we applied an ensemble of the 12 latest model simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to assess future drought conditions until 2099 in Northwest China, as inferred from the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Future drought conditions were projected under three climate change scenarios through the combination of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs), namely, SSP126 (SSP1 + RCP2.6, a green development pathway), SSP245 (SSP2 + RCP4.5, an intermediate development pathway), and SSP585 (SSP5 + RCP8.5, a high development pathway). For 2015-2099, drought severity showed no trend under SSP126, in contrast, for the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, a rapid increase during 2015-2099 was observed, especially under SSP585. We also found that the drought frequency in Northwest China under SSP585 was generally lower than that under SSP126 and SSP245, although the drought duration under SSP585 tended to be longer. These findings suggest the green development pathway in drought mitigation and adaptation strategies in Northwest China, an arid and agricultural region along the Silk Road.
Bibliography:Supplementary data
ISSN:1674-9278
1674-9278
DOI:10.1016/j.accre.2020.09.003