Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Public–Private Partnership (PPP) Project Risks in China: 2003–2019

• Published in: Advances in Civil Engineering Vol. 2024; pp. 1 - 22
• Main Authors: Wang, Yanwei, Gong, Lili, Zheng, Shanfeng, Han, Xiaoqing, Zhang, Jiajin, Huang, Yi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Hindawi 16.01.2024; John Wiley & Sons, Inc; Hindawi Limited
• Subjects: Distribution patterns; Dynamic models; Evolution; Forecasts and trends; Infrastructure; Literature reviews; Monte Carlo simulation; Partnerships; Project management; Public private partnerships; Public-private sector cooperation; Qualitative research; Research methodology; Risk assessment; Risk levels; Risk management; Spatial distribution; Sustainable development; Trends; China
• ISSN: 1687-8086; 1687-8094
• DOI: 10.1155/2024/2689594

The implementation of public–private partnership (PPP) is perturbed by multiple factors, and it is difficult for the Chinese government to fully control the risks of PPP projects. Based on the DPSIR model, this study constructed the PPP projects risk evaluation index system by using the TOPSIS method. Then the spatial variation, standard deviation ellipse, and gray dynamic model were used to analyze the spatial–temporal dynamic evolution characteristics of the risk level of PPP projects from 2003 to 2019 and to make reasonable predictions of the future spatial distribution pattern. This study yielded the following five results: (1) the average risk level of China’s PPP projects is 0.722, with a decreasing trend of fluctuation and relatively stable risk; (2) high-risk provinces for PPP projects decrease, medium-risk provinces increase; (3) the spatial variability of risk is increasing, and the spatial differentiation is significant, showing a spatial evolution pattern of “west > central > east,” but areas with low-risk values are clearly migrating to the east; (4) the spatial distribution pattern of risk has a north-easterly orientation, with a “north-west to north-east” trend in the path of movement; (5) There are differences in the spatial distribution patterns in the east–west and north–south directions, and the spatial spillover effect is not obvious. Based on the above results, the risk center of China’s PPP projects will be shifted to the northeast in 2025–2035. Our study captures the evolution of PPP project risks in China in both temporal and spatial dimensions, which can provide lessons for optimizing global PPP project risk management.