Global warming threatens conservation status of alpine EU habitat types in the European Eastern Alps

• Published in: Regional environmental change Vol. 19; no. 8; pp. 2411 - 2421
• Main Authors: Schwager, Patrick, Berg, Christian
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.12.2019; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: 21st century; Air pollution; Alpine ecosystems; Alps region; Analysis; Climate Change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climate models; Composition; Conservation; conservation areas; Conservation status; Diagnostic systems; Earth and Environmental Science; Environment; Environmental conditions; environmental factors; European Union; Flora; Geographical distribution; Geography; Global warming; Habitat changes; Habitats; Low temperature; Mountain ecology; Nature Conservation; Niches; Oceanography; Original Article; Protected areas; Protected species; Protection and preservation; Regional/Spatial Science; Species composition; species diversity; temperature; Wildlife conservation; Alps; Alps region; Protected areas; Eastern alpine habitats; Climate change; Habitat suitability models; Natura 2000
• ISSN: 1436-3798; 1436-378X
• DOI: 10.1007/s10113-019-01554-z

At the European level, the Natura 2000 habitat network is the main instrument for preserving and protecting species and habitats. However, protected areas are fixed in location, and environmental conditions continually subject to change. Changing conditions force species to shift their geographic distribution or to adapt to new conditions, ultimately causing a change in the composition of the habitats’ species. We modelled the response of two important alpine EU habitat types (6150, 6170) in the Styrian Eastern Alps to increasing temperatures using two representative concentration pathways (rcp 4.5 and rcp 8.5) of the regional climate model CCLM4-8-17 CLMcom. Our results confirmed that climate change within the next several decades will have an immediate and profound impact on the Alpine flora and their habitats. The niche models indicate a dramatic reduction in the habitat suitability of 15 habitat diagnostic species before the end of the twenty-first century. Habitat change was found to be slower inside protected areas in the first half of the twenty-first century, while in the second half of the twenty-first century, suitable habitat conditions either remained constant for the lower temperature scenario (rcp 4.5) or shifted to “outside” current protected areas in the severe scenario (rcp 8.5). Regions of rapidly changing habitat suitability and subsequently shifting species composition can be found both inside and outside of the protected area network. These developments may lead to the deterioration of the conservation status of habitat types and challenge the aims of the EU habitat directive.