The Effects of Problem Representation on the Sure-Thing and Substitution Principles

This paper reports an experimental investigation of the effects of three forms of problem representation on compliance with the Sure-Thing and Substitution Principles. The most common form of representation, written problem statements, was compared with two visual representations: decision matrices...

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Published in	Management science Vol. 31; no. 6; pp. 738 - 751
Main Author	Keller, L. Robin
Format	Journal Article
Language	English
Published	Linthicum, MD INFORMS 01.06.1985 Institute of Management Sciences Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
Series	Management Science
Subjects	Applied sciences Conformity Convertible cars decision analysis Decision making Decision making models Decision theory. Utility theory Decision trees Economic utility Exact sciences and technology Expected utility Graduate schools Observed choices Operational research and scientific management Operational research. Management science Paradoxes preference Principles Probability problem representation Questionnaires Randomness Standard deviation Statistical analysis utility utility/preference Violations Preference theory Utility theory Decision analysis Decision theory
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ISSN	0025-1909 1526-5501
DOI	10.1287/mnsc.31.6.738

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Abstract	This paper reports an experimental investigation of the effects of three forms of problem representation on compliance with the Sure-Thing and Substitution Principles. The most common form of representation, written problem statements, was compared with two visual representations: decision matrices with each column proportional in size to the probability of the corresponding event and tubes containing 100 labeled balls. The proportional matrices led to fewer violations of both principles. Moreover, when subjects were trained to construct proportional matrices from written problem statements, they exhibited even fewer violations.
AbstractList	This paper reports an experimental investigation of the effects of three forms of problem representation on compliance with the Sure-Thing and Substitution Principles. The most common form of representation, written problem statements, was compared with two visual representations: decision matrices with each column proportional in size to the probability of the corresponding event and tubes containing 100 labeled balls. The proportional matrices led to fewer violations of both principles. Moreover, when subjects were trained to construct proportional matrices from written problem statements, they exhibited even fewer violations. A laboratory experiment was conducted to determine how representation of a decision problem affects subjects' performance in complying with the Sure-Thing and Substitution Principles of decision making under uncertainty. In past studies, subjects generally have been provided only written problem formats for examining principle compliance. In the present study, subjects randomly received one of 3 problem representations, including a written problem statement, tubes containing 100 labeled balls, and a decision matrix with outcome probabilities displayed proportionate to column size. Subjects receiving the proportional matrix representation were found to violate the principle less frequently than did subjects receiving other problem representations. In a subsequent experiment, subjects trained to construct proportional matrices from written problems were found to achieve improved compliance with the principles over subjects receiving preconstructed matrices.
Author	Keller, L. Robin
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SubjectTerms	Applied sciences Conformity Convertible cars decision analysis Decision making Decision making models Decision theory. Utility theory Decision trees Economic utility Exact sciences and technology Expected utility Graduate schools Observed choices Operational research and scientific management Operational research. Management science Paradoxes preference Principles Probability problem representation Questionnaires Randomness Standard deviation Statistical analysis utility utility/preference Violations
Title	The Effects of Problem Representation on the Sure-Thing and Substitution Principles
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