The Effects of Problem Representation on the Sure-Thing and Substitution Principles

• Published in: Management science Vol. 31; no. 6; pp. 738 - 751
• Main Author: Keller, L. Robin
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Linthicum, MD INFORMS 01.06.1985; Institute of Management Sciences; Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
• Series: Management Science
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Conformity; Convertible cars; decision analysis; Decision making; Decision making models; Decision theory. Utility theory; Decision trees; Economic utility; Exact sciences and technology; Expected utility; Graduate schools; Observed choices; Operational research and scientific management; Operational research. Management science; Paradoxes; preference; Principles; Probability; problem representation; Questionnaires; Randomness; Standard deviation; Statistical analysis; utility; utility/preference; Violations; Preference theory; Utility theory; Decision analysis; Decision theory
• ISSN: 0025-1909; 1526-5501
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.31.6.738

This paper reports an experimental investigation of the effects of three forms of problem representation on compliance with the Sure-Thing and Substitution Principles. The most common form of representation, written problem statements, was compared with two visual representations: decision matrices with each column proportional in size to the probability of the corresponding event and tubes containing 100 labeled balls. The proportional matrices led to fewer violations of both principles. Moreover, when subjects were trained to construct proportional matrices from written problem statements, they exhibited even fewer violations.