Estimating impacts of warming temperatures on California's electricity system

• Published in: Global environmental change Vol. 23; no. 2; pp. 499 - 511
• Main Authors: Sathaye, Jayant A., Dale, Larry L., Larsen, Peter H., Fitts, Gary A., Koy, Kevin, Lewis, Sarah M., de Lucena, André Frossard Pereira
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Amsterdam Elsevier Ltd 01.04.2013; Elsevier
• Subjects: California; climate; Climate change; Climate change impacts; cooling systems; Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Electric power generation; Electricity; Electricity consumption; energy; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; Estimating; Exact sciences and technology; funding; Infrastructure; Marine and continental quaternary; Peak Load; Pollution, environment geology; power generation; Substations; Surficial geology; temperature; Transmission lines; California; United States; INE, USA, California; USA, California; Climate change impacts; California; Electricity; Peak Load; impact statements; electricity; climate; technology; North America; high temperature; power plants; management; cooling; warming; temperature; infrastructures; climate change; energy
• ISSN: 0959-3780; 1872-9495
• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.005

► We analyze the effects on California's power system during peak load caused by climate change induced higher temperatures. ► Based on climate scenarios, warming and associated peak demand increase would necessitate additional generation and transmission capacity. ► Additional peak capacity can reach 38% for generation and 31% for transmission, assuming current infrastructure. ► We propose adaptation measures to cope with lower capacity to attend peak demand. Despite a clear need, little research has been carried out at the regional-level to quantify potential climate-related impacts to electricity production and delivery systems. This paper introduces a bottom-up study of climate change impacts on California's energy infrastructure, including high temperature effects on power plant capacity, transmission lines, substation capacity, and peak electricity demand. End-of-century impacts were projected using the A2 and B1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. The study quantifies the effect of high ambient temperatures on electricity generation, the capacity of substations and transmission lines, and the demand for peak power for a set of climate scenarios. Based on these scenarios, atmospheric warming and associated peak demand increases would necessitate up to 38% of additional peak generation capacity and up to 31% additional transmission capacity, assuming current infrastructure. These findings, although based on a limited number of scenarios, suggest that additional funding could be put to good use by supporting R&D into next generation cooling equipment technologies, diversifying the power generation mix without compromising the system's operational flexibility, and designing effective demand side management programs.