Short-term solar power prediction using a support vector machine

• Published in: Renewable energy Vol. 52; pp. 118 - 127
• Main Authors: Zeng, Jianwu, Qiao, Wei
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01.04.2013; Elsevier
• Subjects: Accuracy; Applied sciences; Atmospherics; Autoregressive (AR) model; Computer simulation; Energy; Exact sciences and technology; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical models; Natural energy; Radial basis function neural network (RBFNN); Short term; Solar power generation; Solar power prediction (SPP); Support vector machine (SVM); Support vector machines; Transmissivity; Short term; Autoregressive (AR) model; Support vector machine (SVM); Radial basis function neural network (RBFNN); Solar power prediction (SPP); Renewable energy; Solar energy; Autoregressive model; Electric power production; Neural network
• ISSN: 0960-1481; 1879-0682
• DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2012.10.009

This paper proposes a least-square (LS) support vector machine (SVM)-based model for short-term solar power prediction (SPP). The input of the model includes historical data of atmospheric transmissivity in a novel two-dimensional (2D) form and other meteorological variables, including sky cover, relative humidity, and wind speed. The output of the model is the predicted atmospheric transmissivity, which then is converted to solar power according to the latitude of the site and the time of the day. Computer simulations are carried out to validate the proposed model by using the data obtained from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Results show that the proposed model not only significantly outperforms a reference autoregressive (AR) model but also achieves better results than a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN)-based model in terms of prediction accuracy. The superiority of using transmissivity over sigmoid functions for data normalization is testified. Simulation studies also show that the use of additional meteorological variables, especially sky cover, improves the accuracy of SPP. ► A support vector machine model is proposed for short-term solar power prediction. ► The model input includes historical data of multiple meteorological variables. ► The proposed model outperforms autoregressive model and RBFNN model. ► The model has been validated by computer simulations using real-world data.