Using the seasonal FGM(1,1) model to predict the air quality indicators in Xingtai and Handan

• Published in: Environmental science and pollution research international Vol. 26; no. 14; pp. 14683 - 14688
• Main Authors: Wu, LF, Li, Nu, Zhao, Ting
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.05.2019; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Air pollution; Air pollution control; Air pollution effects; Air quality; Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Earth and Environmental Science; Ecotoxicology; Environment; Environmental Chemistry; Environmental Health; Environmental science; Forecasting; Indicators; Mathematical models; Nitrogen dioxide; Outdoor air quality; Particulate matter; Pollution; Pollution control; Research Article; Seasonal variations; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Seasonal factors; Handan; Xingtai; Air indicators; Gray model
• ISSN: 0944-1344; 1614-7499
• DOI: 10.1007/s11356-019-04715-z

The air pollution problem in Xingtai and Handan is the focus of public attention. The seasonal gray model with fractional order accumulation is proposed to predict the quarterly concentrations of PM 2.5 , PM 10 , NO 2 , and CO in Xingtai and Handan. The new model has higher forecasting performance and can describe the characteristics of seasonal fluctuation very well. The forecasting results indicated that except for the PM 10 in Xingtai that will increase slowly, the other indicators in the two places will decrease. The changes of the air quality indicator concentration in different quarters are obvious, and in the same quarter tend to be stable. Except for CO and NO 2 in some seasons, other indicators are in the state of exceeding the standard. The effect of air pollution control is not good. The governance needs to be further strengthened.