Degradation-Based Burn-In Planning Under Competing Risks

• Published in: Technometrics Vol. 54; no. 2; pp. 159 - 168
• Main Authors: Ye, Zhi-Sheng, Xie, Min, Tang, Loon-Ching, Shen, Yan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Alexandria, VA Taylor & Francis Group 01.05.2012; The American Society for Quality and The American Statistical Association; American Society for Quality and the American Statistical Association; American Society for Quality
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Burn in; Catastrophic failure; Cost efficiency; Cost estimates; Cost functions; Degradation-threshold failure; Electronics; Exact sciences and technology; Failure modes; Fracture mechanics (crack, fatigue, damage...); Fundamental areas of phenomenology (including applications); Gamma process; Infant mortality; Multiple modes of failure; Narrative devices; Operating costs; Operational research and scientific management; Operational research. Management science; Parameter estimation; Physics; Reliability; Reliability theory. Replacement problems; Remarriage; Solid mechanics; Structural and continuum mechanics; Testing, measurement, noise and reliability; Total costs; Uncertainty; Unit costs; High risk; Parameter estimation; Uncertainty; Catastrophic failure; Eigenmode; Mortality; Competing risk; Rupture; Algorithmics; Burn in test; Stochastic process; Failures; Modeling; Multiple modes of failure; Accelerated aging test; Gamma distribution; Degradation-threshold failure; Uncertain system; Gamma process; System identification; Planning; Reliability
• ISSN: 0040-1706; 1537-2723
• DOI: 10.1080/00401706.2012.676946

Motivated by two real-life examples, this article develops a burn-in planning framework with competing risks. Existing approaches to planning burn-in tests are confined to a single failure mode based on the assumption that this failure mode is subject to infant mortality. Considering the prevalence of competing risks and the high reliability of modern products, our framework differentiates between normal and infant mortality failure modes and recommends degradation-based burn-in approaches. This framework is employed to guide the burn-in planning for an electronic device subject to both a degradation-threshold failure, which is an infant mortality mode and can be modeled by a gamma process with random effect, and a catastrophic mode, which is normal and can be represented with a conventional reliability model. Three degradation-based burn-in models are built and the optimal cutoff degradation levels are derived. Their validity is demonstrated by an electronic device example. We also propose three approaches to deal with uncertainty due to parameter estimation. Algorithmic details and proofs are provided in supplementary material online.