Demographic trade-offs predict tropical forest dynamics

• Published in: Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Vol. 368; no. 6487; pp. 165 - 168
• Main Authors: Rüger, Nadja, Condit, Richard, Dent, Daisy H, DeWalt, Saara J, Hubbell, Stephen P, Lichstein, Jeremy W, Lopez, Omar R, Wirth, Christian, Farrior, Caroline E
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States The American Association for the Advancement of Science 10.04.2020
• Subjects: Anthropogenic factors; Biomass; Demographics; Demography; Dynamics; Ecological succession; Forest ecosystems; Forest management; Forests; Functional groups; Human influences; Life history; Plant diversity; Predictions; Rainforest; Species; Species diversity; Tradeoffs; Tropical forests
• ISSN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.aaz4797

Understanding tropical forest dynamics and planning for their sustainable management require efficient, yet accurate, predictions of the joint dynamics of hundreds of tree species. With increasing information on tropical tree life histories, our predictive understanding is no longer limited by species data but by the ability of existing models to make use of it. Using a demographic forest model, we show that the basal area and compositional changes during forest succession in a neotropical forest can be accurately predicted by representing tropical tree diversity (hundreds of species) with only five functional groups spanning two essential trade-offs-the growth-survival and stature-recruitment trade-offs. This data-driven modeling framework substantially improves our ability to predict consequences of anthropogenic impacts on tropical forests.