A fully coupled, mechanistic model for infectious disease dynamics in a metapopulation: Movement and epidemic duration

• Published in: Journal of theoretical biology Vol. 254; no. 2; pp. 331 - 338
• Main Authors: Jesse, M., Ezanno, P., Davis, S., Heesterbeek, J.A.P.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Elsevier Ltd 21.09.2008; Elsevier
• Subjects: Animals; Basic Reproduction Number; Cellular Biology; Communicable Diseases - transmission; Computer Simulation; Disease Outbreaks; Disease Transmission, Infectious; Humans; Life Sciences; Migration; Models, Biological; Models, Statistical; Outbreak duration; Persistence; Population Density; Population Dynamics; Population Growth; Stochastic; Travel; Within-patch dynamics; Persistence; Within-patch dynamics; Stochastic; Migration; Outbreak duration; MIGRATION; WITHIN-PATCH DYNAMICS; DURÉE ÉPIDÉMIQUE; STOCHASTIC; OUTBREAK DURATION; PERSISTENCE
• ISSN: 0022-5193; 1095-8541
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.05.038

The drive to understand the invasion, spread and fade out of infectious disease in structured populations has produced a variety of mathematical models for pathogen dynamics in metapopulations. Very rarely are these models fully coupled, by which we mean that the spread of an infection within a subpopulation affects the transmission between subpopulations and vice versa. It is also rare that these models are accessible to biologists, in the sense that all parameters have a clear biological meaning and the biological assumptions are explained. Here we present an accessible model that is fully coupled without being an individual-based model. We use the model to show that the duration of an epidemic has a highly non-linear relationship with the movement rate between subpopulations, with a peak in epidemic duration appearing at small movement rates and a global maximum at large movement rates. Intuitively, the first peak is due to asynchrony in the dynamics of infection between subpopulations; we confirm this intuition and also show the peak coincides with successful invasion of the infection into most subpopulations. The global maximum at relatively large movement rates occurs because then the infectious agent perceives the metapopulation as if it is a single well-mixed population wherein the effective population size is greater than the critical community size.